Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Investigation game?

Investigation + Supernatural

Of 231 developers who shipped a Supernatural Investigation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 434 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×5.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×579 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 434 games are announced against 132 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 434 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 231
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.0k → $5.4k → $2.8k → $2.7k → $5.5k → $3.4k → $1.9k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Investigation + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 231
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,578)
Top 5% $275k (exactly $274,825)
Developers, 2 yr 231
Released games 503
Announced 434
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Investigation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Puzzle
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 18,271 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 121 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 434 games are announced against 132 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  11. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  12. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Phasmophobia · EA older $19.99 684,009 94% 21M $410M (exactly $410,200,197) Kinetic Games
The Casting of Frank Stone™ older $29.99 5,580 62% 167k $5.0M (exactly $5,020,326) Supermassive Games
The Painscreek Killings older $19.99 5,784 90% 174k $3.5M (exactly $3,468,665) EQ Studios
Sherlock Holmes The Awakened older $39.99 2,612 81% 78k $3.1M (exactly $3,133,616) Frogwares
The Drifter $19.99 4,735 97% 142k $2.8M (exactly $2,839,580) Powerhoof, Dave Lloyd
Enigma of Fear $29.99 3,045 95% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,739,586) Dumativa, Cellbit
The Séance of Blake Manor $19.99 3,683 95% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,208,695) Spooky Doorway
Tails Noir older $24.99 2,592 66% 78k $1.9M (exactly $1,943,222) Eggnut
The Bridge Curse 2: The Extrication older $24.99 2,493 93% 75k $1.9M (exactly $1,869,002) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
SONG OF HORROR COMPLETE EDITION older $29.99 1,932 80% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,738,220) Protocol Games
The Mermaid Mask $19.99 2,776 99% 83k $1.7M (exactly $1,664,767) SFB Games
RAIDOU Remastered: The Mystery of the Soulless Army $49.99 1,045 93% 31k $1.6M (exactly $1,567,186) ATLUS
1666: Amsterdam · EA $29.99 784 63% 24k $705k (exactly $705,365) Panache Digital Games
Ghost Town $24.99 565 95% 17k $424k (exactly $423,580) Fireproof Games
Foolish Mortals $19.99 663 94% 20k $398k (exactly $397,601) Inklingwood Studios
The Posthumous Investigation $19.99 554 94% 17k $332k (exactly $332,234) Mother Gaia Studio
ASYLUM $24.99 421 84% 13k $316k (exactly $315,624) Senscape

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.