Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Investigation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Investigation RPG?

RPG + Investigation

Of 168 developers who shipped an Investigation RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 402 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $400; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×440 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 402 games are announced against 90 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 402 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Investigation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 168
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $1.3k → $1.0k → $1.4k → $2.0k → $1.4k → $3.1k (still earning) → $475 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Investigation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 168
Bottom 30% $400 (exactly $400)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,797)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,236)
Top 5% $276k (exactly $276,462)
Developers, 2 yr 168
Released games 467
Announced 402
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Investigation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Interactive Fiction, Puzzle
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 27,936 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $400, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $400. 8 in 10 of the 98 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 402 games are announced against 90 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
L.A. Noire older $19.99 31,099 85% 933k $19M (exactly $18,650,070) Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds
Lost Judgment older $39.99 7,461 93% 224k $9.0M (exactly $8,950,962) RGG Studio
The Forgotten City older $24.99 11,159 96% 335k $8.4M (exactly $8,365,902) Modern Storyteller
Fate Seeker II older $22.60 11,360 88% 341k $7.7M (exactly $7,702,080) JSL Entertainment
Murders on the Yangtze River older $14.99 15,833 96% 475k $7.1M (exactly $7,120,100) OMEGAMES STUDIO
Unheard - Voices of Crime older $6.99 30,978 95% 929k $6.5M (exactly $6,496,087) NEXT Studios
The Sinking City Remastered older $39.99 5,361 75% 161k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,592) Frogwares
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
Sanfu older $10.99 17,323 82% 520k $5.7M (exactly $5,711,393) Shiying Studio
Cyber Manhunt older $9.99 14,520 92% 436k $4.4M (exactly $4,351,644) Aluba Van+
Cyber Manhunt 2: New World - The Hacking Simulator $12.99 5,191 92% 156k $2.0M (exactly $2,022,933) Aluba Van+
Feign $4.99 5,270 91% 158k $789k (exactly $788,919) Teneke Kafalar
再见断刀 $9.99 2,563 92% 77k $768k (exactly $768,131) 非侠游戏
Trials of Innocence $16.99 1,308 91% 39k $667k (exactly $666,688) 猫龙游戏
Equinox: Homecoming $14.99 1,294 80% 39k $582k (exactly $581,912) Blue Scarab Entertainment
Best Served Cold $17.99 671 87% 20k $362k (exactly $362,139) Rogueside
Misty Judgment $8.99 1,170 92% 35k $316k (exactly $315,549) 次元边界
The Horror at Highrook $19.99 461 90% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Nullpointer Games
Dread Flats $5.99 1,453 83% 44k $261k (exactly $261,104) Ghostcase

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.