Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Investigation Roguelike?

Investigation + Roguelike

Of 26 developers who shipped an Investigation Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $80k, ×169 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 53 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 53 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $897 → $2.7k → $11k → $8.4k → $719 → $150 (still earning) → $2.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Investigation + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,797)
Top 25% $7.7k (exactly $7,670)
Top 5% $80k (exactly $80,496)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 46
Announced 53
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Investigation, Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Exploration, Puzzle
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 17,908 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $7.6k, 1 in 20 over $80k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  11. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  12. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Blue Prince $29.99 17,498 85% 525k $16M (exactly $15,742,951) Dogubomb
Depersonalization older $19.99 6,041 92% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,622,788) MeowNature
HellSign older $19.99 2,147 67% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,287,556) Ballistic Interactive
Anoxia Station $14.99 179 76% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Bonereaders
DarKnot · EA older $16.90 58 56% 1.7k $29k (exactly $29,406) DarKnot Team
XXX_CYBERRAT_XXX older $5.99 137 94% 4.1k $25k (exactly $24,619) Nocturne Studio
Hodgepodge Hunch older $4.99 140 93% 4.2k $21k (exactly $20,958) uracon
The Detective Reaper Invites older $9.99 58 37% 1.7k $17k (exactly $17,383) SHIZU KANO UMI
N.O.X. · EA $16.99 31 51% 930 $16k (exactly $15,801) LuminDrive
Long Live Caesar $9.99 51 78% 1.5k $15k (exactly $15,285) Yury Khovansky, Vladislavs Viktorovs
BeatRider $11.99 32 53% 960 $12k (exactly $11,510) 无限电玩, Combo X Camp
Victor's Test Night: REVES $7.99 35 97% 1.1k $8.4k (exactly $8,390) 727 Not Hound
Dungeon Tells $7.99 32 75% 960 $7.7k (exactly $7,670) Ace Benoff
InfinityMine · EA $8.99 16 68% 480 $4.3k (exactly $4,315) HayaseWorks
The Office Killer $9.99 13 92% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) IceMoon Games
Empty Village (Part 1) $4.99 21 90% 630 $3.1k (exactly $3,144) 트리니티 소프트웨어, PASSWORLD, 이정겸(CEO OF PASSW… (트리니티 소프트웨어, PASSWORLD, 이정겸(CEO OF PASSWORLD))

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.