Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Investigation game?

Investigation + Post-apocalyptic

Of 37 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Investigation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 86 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×238 the market median. Revenue is up 150% on the market; 86 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 150% on the market, 86 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.8k → $1.0k → $12k → $1.3k → $1.7k → $4.7k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Investigation + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $598 (exactly $598)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,676)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $21,279)
Top 5% $149k (exactly $149,276)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 104
Announced 86
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 150% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Investigation; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Action
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 2,746 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 86 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  11. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  12. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Content Warning older $7.99 72,444 93% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,364,827) Zorro, Wilnyl, Philip, thePetHen, Skog
The Talos Principle: Reawakened $39.99 1,085 90% 33k $1.3M (exactly $1,301,674) Croteam
ABYSS OF THE SACRIFICE older $39.99 238 81% 7.1k $286k (exactly $285,529) INTENSE
BEAUTIFUL DESOLATION older $12.99 517 75% 16k $201k (exactly $201,475) THE BROTHERHOOD
Lost Dimension older $24.99 221 72% 6.6k $166k (exactly $165,684) FURYU Corporation
Once Alive $11.99 415 82% 12k $149k (exactly $149,276) Cem Boray Yıldırım
HARDCODED $16.99 282 90% 8.5k $144k (exactly $143,735) Ghost Hug Games
Dread X Collection 4: The Hunt older $9.99 379 88% 11k $114k (exactly $113,586) DreadXP, David Szymanski, Christopher Y… (DreadXP, David Szymanski, Christopher Yabsley, KIRA, Philisophic Games, Dan McGrath, TorpleDook, Abbey 'Scruncho' Smith, Vidas Salavejus, Redact Games, Wayward Preacher, Mr. Pink, Aaron Wise)
Infinite Lives $14.99 217 76% 6.5k $98k (exactly $97,585) MDickie
Anoxia Station $14.99 179 76% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Bonereaders
Dustland · EA $22.99 100 69% 3.0k $69k (exactly $68,970) RedPad Games
DRUDGE · EA $12.99 139 94% 4.2k $54k (exactly $54,168) Writegg
60 Minutes to Extinction: Escape Room $7.99 153 82% 4.6k $37k (exactly $36,674) mc2games
Dreadweave · EA $9.99 105 72% 3.2k $31k (exactly $31,468) DeadGrass Games
how to kill a fly [ H2KAF ] $9.99 71 97% 2.1k $21k (exactly $21,279) Radtel Collective

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.