Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Investigation game?

Investigation + Nature

Of 52 developers who shipped a Nature Investigation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 103 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $190k, ×413 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 103 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 103 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 52
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.0k → $2.5k → $540 → $1.1k → $1.8k → $539 → $1.9k (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Investigation + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 52
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,395)
Top 5% $196k (exactly $196,000)
Developers, 2 yr 52
Released games 148
Announced 103
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Investigation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Puzzle
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 34,552 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $5.3k, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 103 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  11. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  12. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Big Walk $19.99 32,470 95% 974k $19M (exactly $19,472,259) House House
Botany Manor older $24.99 1,028 94% 31k $771k (exactly $770,692) Balloon Studios
Amerzone - The Explorer's Legacy $39.99 526 90% 16k $631k (exactly $631,042) Microids Studio Paris
沉默的蟋蟀 older $14.99 1,130 88% 34k $508k (exactly $508,161) 蓬莱飞鱼工作室
Kona II: Brume older $29.99 433 80% 13k $390k (exactly $389,570) Parabole
The Beekeeper's Picnic - A Sherlockian Adventure $13.99 467 97% 14k $196k (exactly $196,000) The Wonder Room
The Good Life older $29.99 198 74% 5.9k $178k (exactly $178,141) White Owls Inc.
Once Alive $11.99 415 82% 12k $149k (exactly $149,276) Cem Boray Yıldırım
Aurora Hills: Chapter 2 $7.99 533 98% 16k $128k (exactly $127,760) NovaSoft Interactive Ltd.
The Moon Hell older $10.99 128 80% 3.8k $42k (exactly $42,202) A.M. Team
The Abbess Garden $9.99 41 87% 1.2k $12k (exactly $12,288) MD Studio
Greenhouse $9.99 33 100% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) Ekull
Retro Relics $9.99 30 90% 900 $9.0k (exactly $8,991) HistoryXPlorer
Primeval Genesis · EA $14.99 15 86% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) After Hours Digital
Castaway Hand $9.99 22 36% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) BAOCHUAN

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.