Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Investigation game?

Investigation + Mystery

Of 850 developers who shipped a Mystery Investigation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,515 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×4.4 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×905 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 1,515 games are announced against 501 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 1,515 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 850
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $2.4k → $3.0k → $3.1k → $3.3k → $2.5k → $1.4k (still earning) → $972 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Investigation + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 850
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $18,316)
Top 5% $430k (exactly $429,811)
Developers, 2 yr 850
Released games 2,288
Announced 1,515
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Investigation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 496,729 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 446 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,515 games are announced against 501 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  11. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  12. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Phasmophobia · EA older $19.99 684,009 94% 21M $410M (exactly $410,200,197) Kinetic Games
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER
Big Walk $19.99 32,470 95% 974k $19M (exactly $19,472,259) House House
L.A. Noire older $19.99 31,099 85% 933k $19M (exactly $18,650,070) Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds
Content Warning older $7.99 72,444 93% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,364,827) Zorro, Wilnyl, Philip, thePetHen, Skog
Heavy Rain older $19.99 26,503 85% 795k $16M (exactly $15,893,849) Quantic Dream
Blue Prince $29.99 17,498 85% 525k $16M (exactly $15,742,951) Dogubomb
MECCHA CHAMELEON $5.99 78,746 87% 2.4M $14M (exactly $14,150,656) lemorion_1224
Demonologist older $19.99 18,886 85% 567k $11M (exactly $11,325,934) Clock Wizard Games
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
The Roottrees are Dead $19.99 9,700 96% 291k $5.8M (exactly $5,817,090) Evil Trout Inc.
Shift At Midnight $9.99 10,147 88% 304k $3.0M (exactly $3,041,056) Bun Muen
The Drifter $19.99 4,735 97% 142k $2.8M (exactly $2,839,580) Powerhoof, Dave Lloyd
Enigma of Fear $29.99 3,045 95% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,739,586) Dumativa, Cellbit

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.