Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + Multiple Endings

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Investigation Multiple Endings game?

Investigation + Multiple Endings

Of 315 developers who shipped an Investigation Multiple Endings game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 611 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×581 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 611 games are announced against 191 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 611 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + Multiple Endings
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 315
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.4k → $2.4k → $7.0k → $3.9k → $3.5k → $1.8k → $1.2k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Investigation + Multiple Endings: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 315
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,772)
Top 5% $276k (exactly $275,862)
Developers, 2 yr 315
Released games 825
Announced 611
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Investigation, Multiple Endings; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Puzzle
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 59,458 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 145 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 611 games are announced against 191 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  11. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  12. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER
Heavy Rain older $19.99 26,503 85% 795k $16M (exactly $15,893,849) Quantic Dream
The Forgotten City older $24.99 11,159 96% 335k $8.4M (exactly $8,365,902) Modern Storyteller
Strange Horticulture older $15.99 14,867 94% 446k $7.1M (exactly $7,131,700) Bad Viking
Bugsnax older $24.99 8,673 97% 260k $6.5M (exactly $6,502,148) Young Horses
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
Sherlock Holmes Chapter One older $44.99 4,189 77% 126k $5.7M (exactly $5,653,893) Frogwares
Pentiment older $19.99 9,231 95% 277k $5.5M (exactly $5,535,831) Obsidian Entertainment
The Casting of Frank Stone™ older $29.99 5,580 62% 167k $5.0M (exactly $5,020,326) Supermassive Games
Nobody Wants to Die older $24.99 5,818 83% 175k $4.4M (exactly $4,361,755) Critical Hit Games
Enigma of Fear $29.99 3,045 95% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,739,586) Dumativa, Cellbit
Beholder: Conductor $13.99 4,532 91% 136k $1.9M (exactly $1,902,080) Alawar
Strange Antiquities $17.99 3,288 95% 99k $1.8M (exactly $1,774,534) Bad Viking
Subliminal $9.99 3,535 74% 106k $1.1M (exactly $1,059,440) Accidental Studios
再见断刀 $9.99 2,563 92% 77k $768k (exactly $768,131) 非侠游戏
Is this Game Trying to Kill Me? $14.99 1,513 95% 45k $680k (exactly $680,396) Stately Snail
Trials of Innocence $16.99 1,308 91% 39k $667k (exactly $666,688) 猫龙游戏
The Last Gas Station $13.99 1,250 87% 38k $525k (exactly $524,625) Alawar

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.