Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Investigation game?

Investigation + Medieval

Of 43 developers who shipped a Medieval Investigation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 78 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $94k, ×199 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 78 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 78 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $18k → $899 → $11k → $3.2k → $449 → $2.2k (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Investigation + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $9.3k (exactly $9,291)
Top 5% $94k (exactly $94,462)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 94
Announced 78
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Investigation; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Point & Click, Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 2,128 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $900, 1 in 4 over $9.2k, 1 in 20 over $94k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 78 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  11. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  12. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pentiment older $19.99 9,231 95% 277k $5.5M (exactly $5,535,831) Obsidian Entertainment
The House of Da Vinci older $19.99 6,710 85% 201k $4.0M (exactly $4,023,987) Blue Brain Games
The House of Da Vinci 2 older $19.99 2,051 90% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,229,985) Blue Brain Games
Do No Harm $15.99 896 74% 27k $430k (exactly $429,811) Darts Games
The Inquisitor older $39.99 277 66% 8.3k $332k (exactly $332,317) The Dust S.A.
The End of the Sun $24.99 228 97% 6.8k $171k (exactly $170,932) The End of the Sun Forge
The House of Da Vinci VR $24.99 126 93% 3.8k $94k (exactly $94,462) Blue Brain Games
Suhoshin older $14.99 167 89% 5.0k $75k (exactly $75,100) No More 500
Time Lock VR 2 older $12.99 170 88% 5.1k $66k (exactly $66,249) WR-VRG
The Advisor - Episode 1: Royal Pain older $2.99 597 96% 18k $54k (exactly $53,551) Randumb Studios
Daemonologie $2.99 561 92% 17k $50k (exactly $50,322) Katanalevy
Scholar Adventure: Mystery of Silence $7.99 82 92% 2.5k $20k (exactly $19,655) Making Enemies, Ayose Trujillo
The Silver Crow $6.99 86 97% 2.6k $18k (exactly $18,034) Dreamagination
Secrets of Velendar Castle - Escape Room $12.99 38 84% 1.1k $15k (exactly $14,809) Biri Biri
The Abbess Garden $9.99 41 87% 1.2k $12k (exactly $12,288) MD Studio
Occulto · EA $14.99 23 73% 690 $10k (exactly $10,343) Sirio Art Games
Mad Experiments: Escape Room - Sanctuary $6.99 47 65% 1.4k $9.9k (exactly $9,856) PlayTogether Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.