Do I ship it?

GamesIncrementalIncremental + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War Incremental game?

Incremental + War

Of 28 developers who shipped a War Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $360. Revenue is up 505% on the market; 42 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 505% on the market, 42 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Incremental + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $210 → $838 → $59 → $12k → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Incremental + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 25% $8.7k (exactly $8,700)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 56
Announced 42
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 505% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Incremental; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Idler, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
9 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 8,816 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $8.7k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Incremental with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds15 devs · median $11k · 12 announced
  2. + OtomeStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  3. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $6.1k · 15 announced
  4. + FarmingFair21 devs · median $5.9k · 23 announced
  5. + Dynamic NarrationFair19 devs · median $4.0k · 14 announced
  6. + MiningFair141 devs · median $3.9k · 207 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  8. + Arena ShooterFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair140 devs · median $3.1k · 136 announced
  10. + UndergroundFair27 devs · median $3.0k · 35 announced
  11. + LootFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  12. + SupernaturalFair33 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced

All 188 pairs on the Incremental page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
How Many Dudes? $14.99 2,948 89% 88k $1.3M (exactly $1,325,716) Butterscotch Shenanigans
Sir, We Have an Orc Problem $9.99 4,123 86% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) Mumpitz Games
Military Incremental Complex $9.99 692 82% 21k $207k (exactly $207,392) Space Kraken Studios
Void Miner – Incremental Asteroids Roguelite $5.99 698 83% 21k $125k (exactly $125,431) RyanJakob
War Tortoise older $12.99 137 79% 4.1k $53k (exactly $53,389) Foursaken Media
Hydra Heli $4.99 83 91% 2.5k $12k (exactly $12,425) Ideas Per Second
Songs of Yummy $3.99 98 74% 2.9k $12k (exactly $11,731) DreamStep, FUTU Studio
Terraforming Titans $5.00 58 94% 1.7k $8.7k (exactly $8,700) terraforming.titans
Middle Age Conquest older $6.99 38 76% 1.1k $8.0k (exactly $7,969) Musa GUNGOR
Hydra Heli 2 $6.99 30 80% 900 $6.3k (exactly $6,291) Ideas Per Second
Triptych Book I: Blockhead · EA $13.99 6 66% 180 $2.5k (exactly $2,518) Mords, Tootsie
Priceless Return $0.99 80 81% 2.4k $2.4k (exactly $2,376) Home

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.