Games › Incremental › Incremental + Thriller
Should I ship a Thriller Incremental game?
Incremental + Thriller
Of 29 developers who shipped a Thriller Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×233 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 25 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $210 (exactly $210) |
|---|---|
| Median | $718 (exactly $718) |
| Top 25% | $16k (exactly $16,189) |
| Top 5% | $111k (exactly $110,589) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 29 |
| Released games | 60 |
| Announced | 25 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Incremental
- effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
- Thriller
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Incremental; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, RPG
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 5,716 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $210. 7 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Incremental with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + OtomeStrong odds
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + FarmingFair
- + Dynamic NarrationFair
- + MiningFair
- + Souls-likeFair
- + Arena ShooterFair
- + Dating SimFair
- + UndergroundFair
- + LootFair
- + SupernaturalFair
Comparable games
That's not my Neighbor 2025 · $403k 
Paper Bride 3 Unresolved Love 2022 · $262k 
Paper Bride 5 Two Lifetimes 2023 · $182k 
Paper Bride 4 Bound Love 2023 · $164k 
Paper Bride 6 Nightmare 2024 · $111k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | That's not my Neighbor | $2.99 | 4,498 88% | 135k | $403k (exactly $403,471) | Nachosama Games | |
| | Paper Bride 3 Unresolved Love | older | $9.99 | 874 92% | 26k | $262k (exactly $261,938) | HeartBeat Plus |
| | Paper Bride 5 Two Lifetimes | older | $9.99 | 606 84% | 18k | $182k (exactly $181,618) | HeartBeat Plus |
| | Paper Bride 4 Bound Love | older | $9.99 | 547 77% | 16k | $164k (exactly $163,936) | HeartBeat Plus |
| | Paper Bride 6 Nightmare | $9.99 | 369 81% | 11k | $111k (exactly $110,589) | HeartBeat Plus | |
 | Dismantling Workshop of Bio-Girl | $29.99 | 120 61% | 3.6k | $108k (exactly $107,964) | 渡里laboratory | |
 | Denos City: Complete Game | older | $11.99 | 217 70% | 6.5k | $78k (exactly $78,055) | Backhole |
 | 筮灵 SHILING | older | $7.99 | 227 71% | 6.8k | $54k (exactly $54,412) | WindField Games |
 | 筒楼异事 | older | $12.99 | 139 87% | 4.2k | $54k (exactly $54,168) | 炸渣渣鸡 |
 | Snowed Under | 雪葬 | $7.99 | 194 60% | 5.8k | $47k (exactly $46,502) | Chilla's Art | |
 | Sera's Adventure -Cave of Destruction- | $18.99 | 76 53% | 2.3k | $43k (exactly $43,297) | 渡里laboratory | |
 | Scourge of the village | $7.99 | 172 70% | 5.2k | $41k (exactly $41,228) | Triangel Game | |
 | 杀青 | $6.99 | 116 76% | 3.5k | $24k (exactly $24,325) | 蒐藏馆工作室 | |
 | 翎之歌 | $6.99 | 83 89% | 2.5k | $17k (exactly $17,405) | YuKi制作组, 崩溃猛犸 | |
 | NoseBound | $14.99 | 36 86% | 1.1k | $16k (exactly $16,189) | Quarantine Interactive | |
 | Grizzly Man | $8.99 | 52 90% | 1.6k | $14k (exactly $14,024) | LCB Game Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.