Do I ship it?

GamesIncrementalIncremental + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Incremental game?

Incremental + Space

Of 140 developers who shipped a Space Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 213 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $450. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 213 games are announced against 116 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 213 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Incremental + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 140
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $30 → $1.1k → $1.9k → $2.1k → $1.5k → $1.3k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Incremental + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 140
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $5.3k (exactly $5,273)
Top 5% $113k (exactly $113,324)
Developers, 2 yr 140
Released games 276
Announced 213
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 345% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Incremental; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Idler, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 13,168 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $5.2k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 38 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 213 games are announced against 116 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Incremental with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds15 devs · median $11k · 12 announced
  2. + OtomeStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  3. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $6.1k · 15 announced
  4. + FarmingFair21 devs · median $5.9k · 23 announced
  5. + Dynamic NarrationFair19 devs · median $4.0k · 14 announced
  6. + MiningFair141 devs · median $3.9k · 207 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  8. + Arena ShooterFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair140 devs · median $3.1k · 136 announced
  10. + UndergroundFair27 devs · median $3.0k · 35 announced
  11. + LootFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  12. + SupernaturalFair33 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced

All 188 pairs on the Incremental page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
To The Core older $7.99 5,087 92% 153k $1.2M (exactly $1,219,354) SomethingExtra
A Game About Feeding A Black Hole $6.99 3,467 88% 104k $727k (exactly $727,030) Aarimous, Thornity
Space Warlord Organ Trading Simulator older $19.99 827 92% 25k $496k (exactly $495,952) Strange Scaffold
Space Rock Breaker $2.99 4,671 96% 140k $419k (exactly $418,989) WAKA WAKA
Galactic Mining Corp older $12.99 868 84% 26k $338k (exactly $338,260) Windybeard
SPACEPLAN older $2.99 3,315 91% 99k $297k (exactly $297,356) Jake Hollands
The Last Cat in the Universe $6.99 1,153 95% 35k $242k (exactly $241,784) Apamate Studio, Diora
The Captain older $19.99 305 92% 9.2k $183k (exactly $182,908) Sysiac Games
Starvester $6.99 790 69% 24k $166k (exactly $165,663) Syphono4
Vanguard Galaxy · EA $8.99 565 90% 17k $152k (exactly $152,380) Bat Roost Games
Void Miner – Incremental Asteroids Roguelite $5.99 698 83% 21k $125k (exactly $125,431) RyanJakob
Code: Terraform · EA $14.99 252 85% 7.6k $113k (exactly $113,324) AppsMafia
Lumberjacked $4.99 647 83% 19k $97k (exactly $96,856) Inner Realm Studios, Dumb Duck Games
Rock Crusher $6.99 352 84% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) Mini Fun Games
How To Grow a Black Hole $3.99 573 67% 17k $69k (exactly $68,588) Desolation Digital

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.