Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental RPG?

RPG + Incremental

Of 371 developers who shipped an Incremental RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 537 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×407 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 537 games are announced against 249 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 537 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 371
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $4.6k → $5.4k → $1.8k → $3.3k → $1.3k → $1.7k (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 371
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,617)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $10,782)
Top 5% $255k (exactly $255,344)
Developers, 2 yr 371
Released games 999
Announced 537
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Incremental; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Idler, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 32,897 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 184 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 537 games are announced against 249 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Book of Demons 2018 · $6.0M Touhou Mystia's Izakaya 2021 · $5.3M Summer Clover 2024 · $4.9M Dragon Cliff 2018 · $2.3M Peeping Dorm Manager 2023 · $2.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Book of Demons older $24.99 8,010 91% 240k $6.0M (exactly $6,005,097) Thing Trunk
Touhou Mystia's Izakaya older $5.99 29,517 98% 886k $5.3M (exactly $5,304,205) 二色幽紫蝶, Re零同人社
Summer Clover older $17.99 9,062 97% 272k $4.9M (exactly $4,890,761) Connection
Dragon Cliff older $9.99 7,679 88% 230k $2.3M (exactly $2,301,396) Meta Interaction
Peeping Dorm Manager older $10.99 6,206 92% 186k $2.0M (exactly $2,046,118) HornyDoge
Cyber Manhunt 2: New World - The Hacking Simulator $12.99 5,191 92% 156k $2.0M (exactly $2,022,933) Aluba Van+
Behind the Frame: The Finest Scenery older $12.99 4,966 94% 149k $1.9M (exactly $1,935,250) Silver Lining Studio
BitCraft Online · EA $15.99 3,334 72% 100k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) Clockwork Laboratories, Inc.
Love Curse: Find Your Soulmate $14.00 3,275 95% 98k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,500) Xso
Swag and Sorcery older $12.99 2,318 54% 70k $903k (exactly $903,325) Lazy Bear Games, Uroboros Games
Tower Wizard $2.99 8,787 96% 264k $788k (exactly $788,194) Barribob
Horripilant $7.99 2,928 92% 88k $702k (exactly $701,842) Alexandre Declos , Pas Game Studio
Sex, Secrets & Used Tech $16.99 1,291 85% 39k $658k (exactly $658,023) WorkNite Games, 78Games
Crusaders Quest : Hero Town $6.99 2,564 76% 77k $538k (exactly $537,671) CQ LABS
Fish to Dish: Idle Sushi $5.99 2,525 96% 76k $454k (exactly $453,742) Kygua Tech
恋爱吗？我家猫会后空翻 $9.99 1,508 96% 45k $452k (exactly $451,948) 光循花火工作室
WindStop Strategy $9.99 1,494 78% 45k $448k (exactly $447,752) Xia Start

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.