Do I ship it?

GamesIncrementalIncremental + Robots

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Robot Incremental game?

Incremental + Robots

Of 22 developers who shipped a Robot Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 13 developers shipped in the last year and 51 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 51 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Incremental + Robots
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $239 → $2.5k → $60 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Incremental + Robots: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $3.8k (exactly $3,774)
Top 5% $108k (exactly $107,964)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 41
Announced 51
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
Robots
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Incremental; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Idler, Simulation, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 1,838 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $450, 1 in 4 over $3.7k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Incremental with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds15 devs · median $11k · 12 announced
  2. + OtomeStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  3. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $6.1k · 15 announced
  4. + FarmingFair21 devs · median $5.9k · 23 announced
  5. + Dynamic NarrationFair19 devs · median $4.0k · 14 announced
  6. + MiningFair141 devs · median $3.9k · 207 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  8. + Arena ShooterFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair140 devs · median $3.1k · 136 announced
  10. + UndergroundFair27 devs · median $3.0k · 35 announced
  11. + LootFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  12. + SupernaturalFair33 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced

All 188 pairs on the Incremental page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
You Know The Drill $4.99 1,022 92% 31k $153k (exactly $152,993) ludokai
Dismantling Workshop of Bio-Girl $29.99 120 61% 3.6k $108k (exactly $107,964) 渡里laboratory
Fishing The Abyss $6.99 421 95% 13k $88k (exactly $88,284) umaaaaaa studio
One Way: The Elevator older $3.99 441 94% 13k $53k (exactly $52,788) Cotton Game
SEX Tentacles [18+] older $3.99 181 57% 5.4k $22k (exactly $21,666) Romantic Room
Gridkeeper $1.99 149 69% 4.5k $8.9k (exactly $8,895) pixelwide
Terraforming Titans $5.00 58 94% 1.7k $8.7k (exactly $8,700) terraforming.titans
Catellite-609: feline space adventure older $12.99 17 64% 510 $6.6k (exactly $6,625) ZorKI
Deep Space Tavern $5.99 21 90% 630 $3.8k (exactly $3,774) World Away Games
Scrap Snap $4.99 25 80% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) BinkyGames
Triptych Book I: Blockhead · EA $13.99 6 66% 180 $2.5k (exactly $2,518) Mords, Tootsie
Turbotz Testing 20XX $4.99 10 100% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) Zed-ex
CydonMan $3.99 6 100% 180 $718 (exactly $718) YesNine

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.