Do I ship it?

GamesIncrementalIncremental + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological Incremental game?

Incremental + Psychological

Of 45 developers who shipped a Psychological Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $180. Revenue is up 115% on the market; 53 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 115% on the market, 53 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Incremental + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $539 → $2.1k → $807 → $900 → $899 → $1.8k → $359 (still earning) → $356 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Incremental + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $899 (exactly $899)
Top 5% $6.5k (exactly $6,473)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 98
Announced 53
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Incremental; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Point & Click, Adventure, Puzzle
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Dark, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $8.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 611 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $360, 1 in 4 over $890, 1 in 20 over $6.4k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. All of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Incremental with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds15 devs · median $11k · 12 announced
  2. + OtomeStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  3. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $6.1k · 15 announced
  4. + FarmingFair21 devs · median $5.9k · 23 announced
  5. + Dynamic NarrationFair19 devs · median $4.0k · 14 announced
  6. + MiningFair141 devs · median $3.9k · 207 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  8. + Arena ShooterFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair140 devs · median $3.1k · 136 announced
  10. + UndergroundFair27 devs · median $3.0k · 35 announced
  11. + LootFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  12. + SupernaturalFair33 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced

All 188 pairs on the Incremental page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
I'm on Observation Duty 6 older $11.99 652 94% 20k $235k (exactly $234,524) Notovia, Dreamloop Games
Insomnia: Theater in the Head older $2.49 2,893 96% 87k $216k (exactly $216,107) Perfect Day Studio
CLICKOLDING older $2.99 1,662 81% 50k $149k (exactly $149,081) Strange Scaffold
I'm on Observation Duty 8 $11.99 237 95% 7.1k $85k (exactly $85,249) Notovia, Dreamloop Games
GAME.exe older $3.99 415 83% 12k $50k (exactly $49,676) Punx Studios
Touch Some Grass older $1.99 820 94% 25k $49k (exactly $48,954) jpm_games
Idea Fix $9.99 128 92% 3.8k $38k (exactly $38,362) ZuitLabs
欢迎加入奇趣社 older $9.99 104 75% 3.1k $31k (exactly $31,169) Dream Cracker
Elf boss's dog training older $7.99 109 74% 3.3k $26k (exactly $26,127) Giver
Lunar maiden, River-side Angel, and the Godlike moment older $10.99 74 86% 2.2k $24k (exactly $24,398) サキュレント
No Vacancy Tonight $8.99 24 100% 720 $6.5k (exactly $6,473) Momiji Games
Soul of Recollection $8.99 16 81% 480 $4.3k (exactly $4,315) Orange Ink Studio
All the Darkest Places $4.99 27 33% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) BeanToast
Alice Mesmerizing Episodes of Neurosis (AMEN) $1.49 84 94% 2.5k $3.8k (exactly $3,755) Sons of Welder, FM Simple Games Studio
Meow Time Machine: Munch $2.99 39 94% 1.2k $3.5k (exactly $3,498) Magic Cat
Beggar's Life $2.99 33 60% 990 $3.0k (exactly $2,960) Perennial Hearts LLC
The Princess Factory $4.99 13 100% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Haymaker Game Studios
Abulia $5.99 10 70% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) Burros Aburridos

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.