Do I ship it?

Games › Programming › Programming + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Programming Incremental game?

Programming + Incremental

Of 24 developers who shipped a Programming Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 19 developers shipped in the last year and 34 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 34 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Programming + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $748 → $748 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Programming + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $9.3k (exactly $9,348)
Top 5% $247k (exactly $247,045)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 45
Announced 34
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 280% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Programming, Incremental; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Automation, Simulation, Idler
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 3,032 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $360, 1 in 4 over $9.3k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Programming with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Base BuildingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + Auto BattlerFair14 devs · median $14k · 14 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  4. + SandboxFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair15 devs · median $7.0k · 26 announced
  6. + AutomationFair84 devs · median $3.8k · 102 announced
  7. + Turn-Based TacticsFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  8. + SimulationFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced
  9. + RobotsFair24 devs · median $1.8k · 29 announced
  10. + CrimeFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 13 announced
  11. + Sci-fiFair56 devs · median $1.7k · 63 announced
  12. + FuturisticFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 25 announced

All 57 pairs on the Programming page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Stone Story RPG 2023 · $803k Talented 2024 · $265k Data Center 2026 · $247k Code: Terraform 2026 · EA · $113k Startup Panic 2022 · $95k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stone Story RPG older $29.99 893 90% 27k $803k (exactly $803,432) Rex Games, standardcombo
Talented $5.99 1,475 91% 44k $265k (exactly $265,058) TurtleFox Games
Data Center $8.99 916 76% 27k $247k (exactly $247,045) Waseku
Code: Terraform · EA $14.99 252 85% 7.6k $113k (exactly $113,324) AppsMafia
Startup Panic older $14.99 211 55% 6.3k $95k (exactly $94,887) Algorocks
Adventure Land - The Code MMORPG $14.99 144 84% 4.3k $65k (exactly $64,757) Wizard
The Birth of an Artificial Intelligence older $34.99 54 77% 1.6k $57k (exactly $56,684) 基本操作PlayClass
PC Creator - PC Building Simulator older $5.99 196 65% 5.9k $35k (exactly $35,221) CREATY
3D Math - Ultra older $4.99 218 92% 6.5k $33k (exactly $32,635) Big Mind Games 9000
UNHUMAN $3.99 161 73% 4.8k $19k (exactly $19,272) Kinda Lowkey Games
Yet Another Incremental Game (but this time about coding) · EA $7.99 39 71% 1.2k $9.3k (exactly $9,348) Raclette Games
F.A.R.M.S.: Chill Factory $7.99 22 72% 660 $5.3k (exactly $5,273) Plema Crafts
Code Tycoon $9.99 15 80% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Mennen Games
OneOne $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Abyss Tech
Battle Bits $4.99 5 40% 150 $748 (exactly $748) NecoPlanet

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.