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Should I ship a Nature Incremental game?
Incremental + Nature
Of 186 developers who shipped a Nature Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 246 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×328 the market median. Revenue is up 95% on the market; 246 games are announced against 113 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $238 (exactly $238) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,169) |
| Top 25% | $5.4k (exactly $5,389) |
| Top 5% | $156k (exactly $155,620) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 186 |
| Released games | 369 |
| Announced | 246 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Incremental
- effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
- Nature
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Incremental; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Idler, Simulation, Resource Management
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
- Art
- 7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, Cute
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 23,165 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 83 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 246 games are announced against 113 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Incremental with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + OtomeStrong odds
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + FarmingFair
- + Dynamic NarrationFair
- + MiningFair
- + Souls-likeFair
- + Arena ShooterFair
- + Dating SimFair
- + UndergroundFair
- + LootFair
- + SupernaturalFair
Comparable games
Chillquarium 2023 · $1.4M 
Outpath 2023 · $1.3M 
Tiny Pasture 2025 · $1.3M 
Chicken Police - Paint it RED! 2020 · $974k 
Garden Galaxy 2022 · $741k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Chillquarium | older | $5.99 | 7,780 92% | 233k | $1.4M (exactly $1,398,066) | Ben Reber |
| | Outpath | older | $14.99 | 2,898 92% | 87k | $1.3M (exactly $1,303,231) | David Moralejo Sánchez |
| | Tiny Pasture | $5.99 | 7,055 92% | 212k | $1.3M (exactly $1,267,784) | CaveLiquid | |
| | Chicken Police - Paint it RED! | older | $19.99 | 1,624 94% | 49k | $974k (exactly $973,913) | The Wild Gentlemen |
| | Garden Galaxy | older | $9.99 | 2,472 97% | 74k | $741k (exactly $740,858) | Anneka Tran |
 | Ropuka's Idle Island | $3.99 | 4,048 95% | 121k | $485k (exactly $484,546) | Moczan, Little Chmura, Begoña Pereda | |
 | Click Mage | $4.99 | 2,529 91% | 76k | $379k (exactly $378,591) | Tiny Crow Games | |
 | Sludgineers | $6.99 | 1,579 87% | 47k | $331k (exactly $331,116) | Snickerdoodle Games, Funk Games | |
 | Capybara Spa | older | $7.99 | 1,345 94% | 40k | $322k (exactly $322,396) | Cozy Bee Games |
 | Fishing Inc | $4.99 | 1,833 91% | 55k | $274k (exactly $274,400) | BigBonk Studio | |
 | Cornerpond | $2.99 | 2,567 97% | 77k | $230k (exactly $230,260) | foolsroom | |
 | Lyca | $4.99 | 1,282 81% | 38k | $192k (exactly $191,915) | Syphono4 | |
 | Budgie's Bug Shop | $5.99 | 1,016 96% | 30k | $183k (exactly $182,575) | Moon Lagoon | |
 | Behind Glass: Aquarium Simulator | $14.99 | 390 95% | 12k | $175k (exactly $175,383) | BitBros Inc | |
 | Bugtopia | $5.99 | 866 92% | 26k | $156k (exactly $155,620) | Nocturnal Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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