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Should I ship a Mystery Incremental game?
Incremental + Mystery
Of 123 developers who shipped a Mystery Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 179 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×2.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×233 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 179 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $210 (exactly $210) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.1k (exactly $1,077) |
| Top 25% | $6.5k (exactly $6,473) |
| Top 5% | $111k (exactly $110,589) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 123 |
| Released games | 290 |
| Announced | 179 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Incremental
- effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
- Mystery
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Incremental; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, Point & Click
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 13,654 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 86 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 179 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Incremental with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + OtomeStrong odds
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + FarmingFair
- + Dynamic NarrationFair
- + MiningFair
- + Souls-likeFair
- + Arena ShooterFair
- + Dating SimFair
- + UndergroundFair
- + LootFair
- + SupernaturalFair
Comparable games
Cyber Manhunt 2: New World - The Hacking Simulator 2025 · $2.0M 
Boxes: Lost Fragments 2024 · $1.5M 
Orb of Creation 2026 · $779k 
Doors: Paradox 2022 · $710k 
Midnight Paradise 2024 · $355k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Cyber Manhunt 2: New World - The Hacking Simulator | $12.99 | 5,191 92% | 156k | $2.0M (exactly $2,022,933) | Aluba Van+ | |
| | Boxes: Lost Fragments | older | $14.99 | 3,244 92% | 97k | $1.5M (exactly $1,458,827) | Big Loop Studios |
| | Orb of Creation | $11.99 | 2,167 84% | 65k | $779k (exactly $779,470) | MarpleGames | |
| | Doors: Paradox | older | $14.99 | 1,579 91% | 47k | $710k (exactly $710,076) | Big Loop Studios |
| | Midnight Paradise | $17.99 | 658 88% | 20k | $355k (exactly $355,123) | Lewdlab | |
 | RATSHAKER™ | $2.99 | 3,011 92% | 90k | $270k (exactly $270,087) | Sunscorched Studios | |
 | Paper Bride 3 Unresolved Love | older | $9.99 | 874 92% | 26k | $262k (exactly $261,938) | HeartBeat Plus |
 | I'm on Observation Duty 6 | older | $11.99 | 652 94% | 20k | $235k (exactly $234,524) | Notovia, Dreamloop Games |
 | Paper Bride 5 Two Lifetimes | older | $9.99 | 606 84% | 18k | $182k (exactly $181,618) | HeartBeat Plus |
 | Paper Bride 4 Bound Love | older | $9.99 | 547 77% | 16k | $164k (exactly $163,936) | HeartBeat Plus |
 | Mystery Lover:Nonexistent Memories | $13.99 | 354 94% | 11k | $149k (exactly $148,574) | Never Knows Best | |
 | Feed the Reactor | $6.99 | 658 82% | 20k | $138k (exactly $137,983) | Adam Travers | |
 | Journey to Incrementalia | $4.99 | 894 86% | 27k | $134k (exactly $133,832) | Adam Travers | |
 | Paper Bride 6 Nightmare | $9.99 | 369 81% | 11k | $111k (exactly $110,589) | HeartBeat Plus | |
 | The House of Da Vinci VR | $24.99 | 126 93% | 3.8k | $94k (exactly $94,462) | Blue Brain Games | |
 | Mosaic of the Strange | $12.99 | 226 92% | 6.8k | $88k (exactly $88,072) | Mark Ffrench |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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