Do I ship it?

GamesIncrementalIncremental + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Incremental game?

Incremental + Modern

Of 58 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×2.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $150. Revenue is up 135% on the market; 50 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 135% on the market, 50 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Incremental + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $4.5k → $1.1k → $1.0k → $313 → $1.3k → $1.6k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Incremental + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $958 (exactly $958)
Top 25% $6.5k (exactly $6,469)
Top 5% $121k (exactly $120,807)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 151
Announced 50
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 135% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Incremental; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Dating Sim, Visual Novel
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 2D, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 3,302 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $960, 1 in 4 over $6.4k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 7 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Incremental with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds15 devs · median $11k · 12 announced
  2. + OtomeStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  3. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $6.1k · 15 announced
  4. + FarmingFair21 devs · median $5.9k · 23 announced
  5. + Dynamic NarrationFair19 devs · median $4.0k · 14 announced
  6. + MiningFair141 devs · median $3.9k · 207 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  8. + Arena ShooterFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair140 devs · median $3.1k · 136 announced
  10. + UndergroundFair27 devs · median $3.0k · 35 announced
  11. + LootFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  12. + SupernaturalFair33 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced

All 188 pairs on the Incremental page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sex, Secrets & Used Tech $16.99 1,291 85% 39k $658k (exactly $658,023) WorkNite Games, 78Games
Insomnia: Theater in the Head older $2.49 2,893 96% 87k $216k (exactly $216,107) Perfect Day Studio
SKETCHY MASSAGE $10.99 438 85% 13k $144k (exactly $144,409) OZ WORKS
Breeding City Welcomes you $12.99 310 68% 9.3k $121k (exactly $120,807) meteo.H
Giant Waifu Wash Simulator 💦 $14.99 194 65% 5.8k $87k (exactly $87,242) Lewd Star
天呐!找不到真爱就扑街! older $6.99 410 78% 12k $86k (exactly $85,977) 國王互娛King Interactive
Fresh Story older $9.99 238 76% 7.1k $71k (exactly $71,329) WetMelonPlay
Family Breeding $9.99 216 75% 6.5k $65k (exactly $64,735) Whiteleaf Studio
Holoidle $4.99 388 84% 12k $58k (exactly $58,084) Kindred Interactive
The Birth of an Artificial Intelligence older $34.99 54 77% 1.6k $57k (exactly $56,684) 基本操作PlayClass
Vending Dokan!: Kozy Kiosk · EA $11.99 150 90% 4.5k $54k (exactly $53,955) Aftabi Games
Sex Industry XXX $9.99 160 62% 4.8k $48k (exactly $47,952) Lust Desires 🖤
Hypnosis App! $13.99 92 68% 2.8k $39k (exactly $38,612) Flag shadow
Trophies: A Corruption Tale · EA $10.99 63 88% 1.9k $21k (exactly $20,771) roasDev, CsCDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.