Do I ship it?

GamesIncrementalIncremental + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Incremental game?

Incremental + Military

Of 22 developers who shipped a Military Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×330 the market median. Revenue is up 235% on the market; 43 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 235% on the market, 43 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Incremental + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.7k → $776 → $1.8k → $418 (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Incremental + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $897 (exactly $897)
Top 25% $3.8k (exactly $3,835)
Top 5% $207k (exactly $207,392)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 49
Announced 43
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 235% on the market, supply 185% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Incremental; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Idler, Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Minimalist
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 5,158 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $900, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Incremental with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds15 devs · median $11k · 12 announced
  2. + OtomeStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  3. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $6.1k · 15 announced
  4. + FarmingFair21 devs · median $5.9k · 23 announced
  5. + Dynamic NarrationFair19 devs · median $4.0k · 14 announced
  6. + MiningFair141 devs · median $3.9k · 207 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  8. + Arena ShooterFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair140 devs · median $3.1k · 136 announced
  10. + UndergroundFair27 devs · median $3.0k · 35 announced
  11. + LootFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  12. + SupernaturalFair33 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced

All 188 pairs on the Incremental page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sir, We Have an Orc Problem $9.99 4,123 86% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) Mumpitz Games
Military Incremental Complex $9.99 692 82% 21k $207k (exactly $207,392) Space Kraken Studios
Long Dream older $6.99 962 98% 29k $202k (exactly $201,731) WildMonkey
J15 Jet Fighter VR (歼15舰载机) · EA older $9.99 44 47% 1.3k $13k (exactly $13,187) Magicvalley Studio
Hydra Heli $4.99 83 91% 2.5k $12k (exactly $12,425) Ideas Per Second
Hydra Heli 2 $6.99 30 80% 900 $6.3k (exactly $6,291) Ideas Per Second
Shoot The Barrels $1.99 103 72% 3.1k $6.1k (exactly $6,149) BATTLE LAB
MOBIUS BAND* older $8.99 20 85% 600 $5.4k (exactly $5,394) Irregulars
Goose Evolution $1.99 68 80% 2.0k $4.1k (exactly $4,060) Goose Goose
Reposition Defense $7.99 16 68% 480 $3.8k (exactly $3,835) HugePixel
Operation: Outbreak Idle $4.99 19 89% 570 $2.8k (exactly $2,844) DeadLogics
Taiping Heavenly Kingdom $3.99 15 66% 450 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) 班超工作室
Arms Dealer $5.99 9 100% 270 $1.6k (exactly $1,617) Koro Pixel Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.