Games › Match 3 › Match 3 + Incremental
Should I ship an Incremental Match 3?
Match 3 + Incremental
Of 52 developers who shipped an Incremental Match 3 in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced.
Verdict: dead, for a 2 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $180 in the last 2 years and $270 over 4, against a market of $120 for a 2 / 10 build. 23 developers shipped in the last year and 27 games are announced.
| Bottom 30% | $59 (exactly $59) |
|---|---|
| Median | $180 (exactly $180) |
| Top 25% | $1.5k (exactly $1,492) |
| Top 5% | $34k (exactly $33,762) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 52 |
| Released games | 199 |
| Announced | 27 |
| Effort | 2 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $1.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Match 3
- effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades
- Incremental
- effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
What it takes
- Effort
- 2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
- Systems
- Match 3, Incremental; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Point & Click, Visual Novel
- Price point
- $1.99 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Relaxing
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $1.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 964 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $59. 9 in 10 of the 42 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Match 3 with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Interactive FictionFair
- + RomanceFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + DemonsFair
- + Time ManagementFair
- + ShooterFair
- + MagicFair
- + Tower DefenseFair
- + Dark FantasyFair
- + PvPLong shot
- + CombatLong shot
- + DogsLong shot
Comparable games
Wolf of Stock Street 2021 · $289k 
LOLLIPOP! 2021 · $197k 
Denos City: Complete Game 2022 · $78k 
Lucky Hunter 2024 · $74k 
Ink Reverie 2025 · $44k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Wolf of Stock Street | older | $10.99 | 878 77% | 26k | $289k (exactly $289,477) | 樹懶叫工作室, sloth gamer |
| | LOLLIPOP! | older | $4.99 | 1,318 75% | 40k | $197k (exactly $197,305) | 430Games, __Ja__ga__imo__ |
| | Denos City: Complete Game | older | $11.99 | 217 70% | 6.5k | $78k (exactly $78,055) | Backhole |
| | Lucky Hunter | $5.99 | 413 89% | 12k | $74k (exactly $74,216) | 159 Studio | |
| | Ink Reverie | $9.99 | 146 74% | 4.4k | $44k (exactly $43,756) | Rolling Cat Studio | |
 | Furry Adventure Club and the Holy Grail 🦁 | $6.99 | 161 93% | 4.8k | $34k (exactly $33,762) | Furry Dreams Lab | |
 | Story of Animal Sprite | older | $8.99 | 117 89% | 3.5k | $32k (exactly $31,555) | Lunaforge Studios |
 | SEX Tentacles [18+] | older | $3.99 | 181 57% | 5.4k | $22k (exactly $21,666) | Romantic Room |
 | Project: Sword Art | older | $4.99 | 124 50% | 3.7k | $19k (exactly $18,563) | 430Games, BOA |
 | Love Puzzle | older | $1.99 | 295 48% | 8.9k | $18k (exactly $17,612) | Romantic Room |
 | Tasty Bite: Food dating simulator | $6.99 | 63 95% | 1.9k | $13k (exactly $13,211) | DuckMemeticsGames | |
 | Naughty Store Manager | $11.99 | 27 33% | 810 | $9.7k (exactly $9,712) | eroverse | |
 | 转生魔塔 | $11.99 | 26 88% | 780 | $9.4k (exactly $9,352) | Zeros | |
 | Pretty Girl Puzzle · Summer Phantom | $4.99 | 50 98% | 1.5k | $7.5k (exactly $7,485) | Pomodoro Lab | |
 | Project: Mirror 2 | $4.99 | 25 44% | 750 | $3.7k (exactly $3,742) | 430Games | |
 | Chowdown Kitty | $2.99 | 35 74% | 1.1k | $3.1k (exactly $3,140) | Lunar Peace | |
 | Macro Data Refinement Simulator | $4.99 | 18 77% | 540 | $2.7k (exactly $2,695) | Macro Data Refinement Dept |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.