Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Investigation Incremental game?

Investigation + Incremental

Of 38 developers who shipped an Investigation Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×3.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×288 the market median. Revenue is up 1320% on the market; 42 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 1320% on the market, 42 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $13k → $959 → $3.1k → $772 → $1.3k → $6.1k (still earning) → $22k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Investigation + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $713 (exactly $713)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,468)
Top 25% $6.1k (exactly $6,138)
Top 5% $137k (exactly $136,925)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 118
Announced 42
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1320% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Investigation, Incremental; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Point & Click, Puzzle, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 6,661 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $6.1k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 9 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  11. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  12. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyber Manhunt 2: New World - The Hacking Simulator $12.99 5,191 92% 156k $2.0M (exactly $2,022,933) Aluba Van+
JudgeSim older $6.99 1,376 84% 41k $289k (exactly $288,547) DelusionArt Studio
I'm on Observation Duty 6 older $11.99 652 94% 20k $235k (exactly $234,524) Notovia, Dreamloop Games
Vtuber Hack $54.99 83 74% 2.5k $137k (exactly $136,925) ベルゼブブ
The House of Da Vinci VR $24.99 126 93% 3.8k $94k (exactly $94,462) Blue Brain Games
I'm on Observation Duty 8 $11.99 237 95% 7.1k $85k (exactly $85,249) Notovia, Dreamloop Games
Mosaic of The Pharaohs $8.99 297 92% 8.9k $80k (exactly $80,101) Mark Ffrench
春泥 Soil of Rebirth $9.99 216 73% 6.5k $65k (exactly $64,735) 午夜说书人
GAME.exe older $3.99 415 83% 12k $50k (exactly $49,676) Punx Studios
Jeffrey Eggstein · EA $4.99 290 94% 8.7k $43k (exactly $43,413) Grabba Guild Games LLC
Desktop Detective $4.99 144 88% 4.3k $22k (exactly $21,557) Conradical Games
MAELSTROM LEGACY: The Tesla Mystery $10.99 36 69% 1.1k $12k (exactly $11,869) Wistfulware
Shattered Dimension $4.99 41 85% 1.2k $6.1k (exactly $6,138) Cotton Game

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.