Do I ship it?

GamesSubmarineSubmarine + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Submarine game?

Submarine + Historical

Only 5 developers shipped a Historical Submarine game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Victory at Sea Atlantic - World War II Naval Warfare, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $52k against a market of $630. 5 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 82.5 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 5 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Submarine + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Submarine + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Median $52k (exactly $51,782)
Top 25% $67k (exactly $67,462)
Top 5% $110k (exactly $110,372)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 31
Announced 5
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $15.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Submarine
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Submarine
Price point
$15.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 46,200 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $52k, 1 in 4 over $67k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 5 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Submarine with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NatureFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  2. + StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  3. + Naval CombatPoor odds12 devs · median $3.4k · 19 announced
  4. + Co-opPoor odds10 devs · median $3.0k · 21 announced
  5. + HorrorPoor odds18 devs · median $2.8k · 31 announced
  6. + PhysicsPoor odds12 devs · median $2.7k · 11 announced
  7. + SimulationPoor odds38 devs · median $2.7k · 49 announced
  8. + Open WorldPoor odds10 devs · median $2.4k · 18 announced
  9. + Sci-fiPoor odds18 devs · median $1.8k · 34 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds19 devs · median $1.2k · 27 announced
  11. + ExplorationPoor odds32 devs · median $959 · 72 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds28 devs · median $958 · 65 announced

All 22 pairs on the Submarine page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
UBOAT older $29.99 25,568 83% 767k $23M (exactly $23,003,530) Deep Water Studio
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Cold Waters older $39.99 4,603 87% 138k $5.5M (exactly $5,522,219) Killerfish Games
Wolfpack · EA older $34.99 1,862 88% 56k $2.0M (exactly $1,954,541) Usurpator AB
Destroyer: The U-Boat Hunter older $29.99 852 73% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) Iron Wolf Studio S.A.
Silent Hunter® III older $9.99 2,544 87% 76k $762k (exactly $762,437) Ubisoft
Silent Hunter 5®: Battle of the Atlantic older $9.99 2,450 44% 74k $734k (exactly $734,265) Ubisoft Romania
Silent Hunter®: Wolves of the Pacific older $9.99 1,120 69% 34k $336k (exactly $335,664) Ubisoft Romania
KURSK older $19.99 445 47% 13k $267k (exactly $266,866) Jujubee S.A.
Victory at Sea Atlantic - World War II Naval Warfare $39.99 92 60% 2.8k $110k (exactly $110,372) Evil Twin Artworks
Silent Shark $17.99 125 98% 3.8k $67k (exactly $67,462) John Goering
ShipShaper: Falconeer Chronicles · EA $8.99 192 96% 5.8k $52k (exactly $51,782) Tomas Sala
Battleships and Carriers 2: 1940-1945 $15.99 5 60% 150 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) SLS
Mythos Mission: Sunken Kingdom $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) OLIVANGO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.