Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Hex Grid

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hex Grid RTS?

RTS + Hex Grid

Only 15 developers shipped a Hex Grid RTS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, High Seas, High Profits!, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240. 32 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper, while revenue is down 85% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 32 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Hex Grid
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $240 → $600 → $598 → $1.9k → $0 (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Hex Grid: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,193)
Top 5% $74k (exactly $74,200)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 50
Announced 32
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Hex Grid; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Real Time Tactics, Simulation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 389 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $900, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $74k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War 2018 · $9.8M Crying Suns 2019 · $2.4M Hexguardian 2024 · $222k Attack at Dawn: North Africa 2022 · $91k Supreme Ruler 1936 2014 · $80k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War older $39.99 8,148 82% 244k $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) Proxy Studios
Crying Suns older $24.99 3,149 85% 94k $2.4M (exactly $2,360,805) Alt Shift
Hexguardian older $11.99 617 78% 19k $222k (exactly $221,935) Split Second Games
Attack at Dawn: North Africa older $29.99 101 87% 3.0k $91k (exactly $90,870) Panzer Division Games
Supreme Ruler 1936 older $9.99 266 74% 8.0k $80k (exactly $79,720) BattleGoat Studios
High Seas, High Profits! $14.99 165 86% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) lexy.zip
Supreme Ruler 2020 Gold older $9.99 206 80% 6.2k $62k (exactly $61,738) BattleGoat Studios
Age of Undead older $19.99 80 76% 2.4k $48k (exactly $47,976) Insane Dreamers
Starport Delta older $24.99 60 66% 1.8k $45k (exactly $44,982) Cloudfire Studios
Hexworld · EA older $14.99 89 78% 2.7k $40k (exactly $40,023) Volcanic Giraffe
Combat Directive : Napoleonic Wars $19.99 36 88% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,589) Fatice Games
ShoreTiles $6.99 90 74% 2.7k $19k (exactly $18,873) Voxel Studios
Glassbreakers: Champions of Moss $19.99 22 63% 660 $13k (exactly $13,193) Polyarc
FolkOrigin $7.99 36 88% 1.1k $8.6k (exactly $8,629) LukaszD
Tribe Nation $9.99 24 79% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Random Worlds s.r.o.
Settle and Battle: New Empires $6.99 9 100% 270 $1.9k (exactly $1,887) Attic Games Studio
Train Trek · EA $14.99 2 100% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Aixceptional
Network Notation $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Matchbox Games LLC
Supreme Power $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Samuel Parker

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.