Should I ship a Heist RPG?
RPG + Heist
Only 14 developers shipped a Heist RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Star Wars Outlaws, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×6.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $25M, ×41018 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 53 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.0k (exactly $1,977) |
| Top 25% | $57k (exactly $56,977) |
| Top 5% | $26M (exactly $25,759,120) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 14 |
| Released games | 61 |
| Announced | 53 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Choices Matter
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 72% positive over 13,114 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 6 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Persona 5 Royal 2022 · $165M 
PAYDAY 3 2023 · $44M 
Star Wars Outlaws 2024 · $26M 
Thief Simulator 2018 · $22M 
Thief 2014 · $10M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Persona 5 Royal | older | $59.99 | 91,682 96% | 2.8M | $165M (exactly $165,000,095) | ATLUS |
| | PAYDAY 3 | older | $29.99 | 49,305 45% | 1.5M | $44M (exactly $44,359,708) | Starbreeze Studios |
| | Star Wars Outlaws | $69.99 | 12,268 71% | 368k | $26M (exactly $25,759,120) | Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio | |
| | Thief Simulator | older | $19.99 | 37,377 88% | 1.1M | $22M (exactly $22,414,987) | Noble Muffins |
| | Thief | older | $19.99 | 17,389 75% | 522k | $10M (exactly $10,428,183) | Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac) |
 | Hobo: Tough Life | older | $29.99 | 8,679 84% | 260k | $7.8M (exactly $7,808,496) | Perun Creative |
 | PAYDAY™ The Heist | older | $9.99 | 21,870 92% | 656k | $6.6M (exactly $6,554,439) | OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio. |
 | To Be or Not to Be | older | $12.99 | 8,035 89% | 241k | $3.1M (exactly $3,131,240) | Team K |
 | FINAL FANTASY | older | $11.99 | 8,120 95% | 244k | $2.9M (exactly $2,920,764) | Square Enix |
 | SUPER DRAGON BALL HEROES WORLD MISSION | older | $59.99 | 1,404 82% | 42k | $2.5M (exactly $2,526,779) | Dimps Corporation, SAFARI GAMES Co., Lt… (Dimps Corporation, SAFARI GAMES Co., Ltd.) |
 | It's Only Money | $24.99 | 473 78% | 14k | $355k (exactly $354,608) | Usual Suspects Studios | |
 | HeistGeist | $19.90 | 116 95% | 3.5k | $69k (exactly $69,252) | Doublequote Studio | |
 | Thousand Hells: The Underworld Heists | $24.99 | 76 78% | 2.3k | $57k (exactly $56,977) | A Sharp | |
 | Dragon's Chronicles~暗黒大魔王と北斗の剣(つるぎ)~ | $12.99 | 128 85% | 3.8k | $50k (exactly $49,882) | スタジオあっとほ～む | |
 | ACCIDENTALLY | $12.99 | 30 60% | 900 | $12k (exactly $11,691) | M&K WORKS | |
 | Bratki | $5.99 | 11 72% | 330 | $2.0k (exactly $1,977) | VZLab | |
 | Street grabbing of territory | $2.99 | 7 100% | 210 | $628 (exactly $628) | Southern Vermilion Bird | |
 | Steal Shift | · EA | $6.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $419 (exactly $419) | Fusion Iconic |
 | Cyber Citizen | $3.99 | 3 66% | 90 | $359 (exactly $359) | Rocket Powered Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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