Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Grid-Based Movement

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Grid-Based Movement RTS?

RTS + Grid-Based Movement

Only 12 developers shipped a Grid-Based Movement RTS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Touhou Spell Carnival, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×6.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $73k, ×49 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 32 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 32 announced, ×6.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Grid-Based Movement
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $11k → $5.0k → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Grid-Based Movement: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,589)
Top 5% $73k (exactly $73,485)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 44
Announced 32
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Grid-Based Movement
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Grid-Based Movement
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 83% positive over 254 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $73k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mashinky 2018 · EA · $1.8M Touhou Spell Carnival 2025 · $73k Machinefall 2026 · $54k Combat Directive : Napoleonic Wars 2024 · $22k Ruzar - The Dark Stones 2024 · $11k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mashinky · EA older $24.99 2,361 84% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,770,042) Jan Zelený
Touhou Spell Carnival $49.99 49 77% 1.5k $73k (exactly $73,485) Idea Factory, Compile Heart, STING
Machinefall $14.99 119 82% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) by Jan Zizka
Combat Directive : Napoleonic Wars $19.99 36 88% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,589) Fatice Games
Ruzar - The Dark Stones older $17.99 21 76% 630 $11k (exactly $11,334) Hammer Glass Studio Inc.
Rails Across America older $9.99 18 72% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Flying Lab Software, ZOOM Platform Medi… (Flying Lab Software, ZOOM Platform Media, Jordan Freeman Group)
Trolls vs Vikings: Reborn $5.99 28 92% 840 $5.0k (exactly $5,032) Megapop
Turnament older $7.99 16 93% 480 $3.8k (exactly $3,835) Philipp Lehner
Within a Dead City older $2.99 41 68% 1.2k $3.7k (exactly $3,678) Moonroof Studios
Purple Noise Echo older $9.99 7 100% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) Ukioq
JAIL DICE: Roll to Break $6.99 8 100% 240 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) GyoonyGames
Lunokhod $4.99 8 87% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Lunokhod Labs
Critterking $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) SpiralKing, Palatabled
Grandma's In Hell $2.99 3 66% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Adam Howell
Exo Exploits · EA $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Flying Hound Studio
Tiny Pods Rescue - 2D Board Game Edition $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Chris Cornu, Alex Cornu

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.