Games › RPG › RPG + Grid-Based Movement
Should I ship a Grid-Based Movement RPG?
RPG + Grid-Based Movement
Of 164 developers who shipped a Grid-Based Movement RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 352 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.7k, ×6.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×258 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 352 games are announced against 97 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $719 (exactly $719) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.7k (exactly $3,742) |
| Top 25% | $31k (exactly $30,869) |
| Top 5% | $162k (exactly $162,132) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 164 |
| Released games | 504 |
| Announced | 352 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- RPG
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Grid-Based Movement
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG, Grid-Based Movement; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Combat, Strategy RPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 42,709 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 79 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 352 games are announced against 97 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
XCOM® 2 2016 · $48M 
STAR WARS Zero Company™ 2026 · $29M 
Battle Brothers 2017 · $23M 
MENACE 2026 · EA · $15M 
King Arthur: Knight's Tale 2022 · $9.1M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | XCOM® 2 | older | $19.99 | 79,998 84% | 2.4M | $48M (exactly $47,974,801) | Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | STAR WARS Zero Company™ | $49.99 | 19,521 82% | 586k | $29M (exactly $29,275,644) | Bit Reactor | |
| | Battle Brothers | older | $29.99 | 26,118 87% | 784k | $23M (exactly $23,498,365) | Overhype Studios |
| | MENACE | · EA | $39.99 | 12,281 90% | 368k | $15M (exactly $14,733,516) | Overhype Studios |
| | King Arthur: Knight's Tale | older | $44.99 | 6,722 83% | 202k | $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) | NeocoreGames |
 | TRIANGLE STRATEGY | older | $59.99 | 3,239 78% | 97k | $5.8M (exactly $5,829,228) | Square Enix, ARTDINK |
 | Xenonauts 2 | $39.99 | 4,853 81% | 146k | $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) | Goldhawk Interactive | |
 | Might & Magic X - Legacy | older | $29.99 | 3,178 65% | 95k | $2.9M (exactly $2,859,247) | Ubisoft |
 | Persona 5 Tactica | older | $59.99 | 1,526 74% | 46k | $2.7M (exactly $2,746,342) | ATLUS |
 | Hard West 2 | older | $29.99 | 2,717 80% | 82k | $2.4M (exactly $2,444,485) | Ice Code Games |
 | Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked | $29.99 | 1,235 82% | 37k | $1.1M (exactly $1,111,130) | Resolution Games | |
 | Lost Eidolons: Veil of the Witch | $24.99 | 1,293 81% | 39k | $969k (exactly $969,362) | Ocean Drive Studio, Inc. | |
 | Card-en-Ciel | $24.99 | 856 90% | 26k | $642k (exactly $641,743) | INTI CREATES CO., LTD. | |
 | Those Who Rule | $17.99 | 1,116 89% | 33k | $602k (exactly $602,305) | Eldin Turulja | |
 | House of Necrosis | $11.99 | 581 94% | 17k | $209k (exactly $208,986) | Warkus | |
 | THYSIASTERY | $17.49 | 309 80% | 9.3k | $162k (exactly $162,132) | DIRGA | |
 | Path of the Abyss | $6.99 | 664 92% | 20k | $139k (exactly $139,241) | Suzuki Suzuzou |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.