Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + God Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a God Game RTS?

RTS + God Game

Of 22 developers who shipped a God Game RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×7.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $550k, ×371 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 46 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 46 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + God Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $598 → $7.4k → $34k → $899 → $13k → $26k → $539 (still earning) → $75 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + God Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,246)
Median $10k (exactly $10,490)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $26,846)
Top 5% $556k (exactly $556,277)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 107
Announced 46
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
God Game
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, God Game; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 2,765 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.3k, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $550k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.3k. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Dungeons 3 2017 · $11M War for the Overworld 2015 · $5.8M Ultimate Epic Battle Simulator 2 2023 · $4.3M Tropico 4 2011 · $3.7M The Settlers: New Allies 2024 · $1.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dungeons 3 older $29.99 12,648 93% 379k $11M (exactly $11,379,406) Realmforge Studios
War for the Overworld older $29.99 6,495 85% 195k $5.8M (exactly $5,843,552) Brightrock Games
Ultimate Epic Battle Simulator 2 older $19.99 7,206 84% 216k $4.3M (exactly $4,321,438) Brilliant Game Studios
Tropico 4 older $14.99 8,211 91% 246k $3.7M (exactly $3,692,487) Haemimont Games
The Settlers: New Allies older $39.99 1,175 49% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,409,648) Ubisoft Düsseldorf
Dungeons 2 older $19.99 2,292 79% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,374,512) Realmforge Studios
Bio Inc. Redemption older $12.99 3,051 87% 92k $1.2M (exactly $1,188,975) DryGin Studios
Evil Genius older $9.99 3,052 94% 92k $915k (exactly $914,684) Elixir Studios
Driftland: The Magic Revival older $19.99 1,439 73% 43k $863k (exactly $862,968) Star Drifters
Gold Gold Adventure Gold $24.99 907 70% 27k $680k (exactly $679,978) Can Can Can a Man
Roman Triumph: Survival City Builder $24.99 742 83% 22k $556k (exactly $556,277) Coreffect Interactive
Fata Deum - The God Sim · EA $29.99 410 59% 12k $369k (exactly $368,877) 42 Bits Entertainment
Extinction Day $19.99 206 74% 6.2k $124k (exactly $123,538) DryGin Studios
Underworld Overseer $19.99 52 90% 1.6k $31k (exactly $31,184) Myron Games
ダンジョンに生息だ！ $7.99 112 90% 3.4k $27k (exactly $26,846) ドクローネ
Crownbound - Fantasy Kingdom Sim $11.99 73 47% 2.2k $26k (exactly $26,258) Bart Mamzer
ELARIENNE $7.99 93 61% 2.8k $22k (exactly $22,292) JDL
Religion inc. $4.99 128 72% 3.8k $19k (exactly $19,162) GameFirst
Scarecropia $9.99 42 88% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,587) JYP Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.