Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + God Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a God Game RPG?

RPG + God Game

Of 42 developers who shipped a God Game RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 75 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×468 the market median. Revenue is up 2765% on the market; 75 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 2765% on the market, 75 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + God Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $208 → $30 → $0 → $0 → $26k → $1.5k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + God Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,792)
Top 5% $294k (exactly $293,597)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 165
Announced 75
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2765% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
God Game
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, God Game; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 3,401 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $540, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 75 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Craft The World older $18.99 15,074 88% 452k $8.6M (exactly $8,587,658) Dekovir Entertainment, Sibear Games
Stonehearth older $19.99 10,652 76% 320k $6.4M (exactly $6,388,004) Radiant Entertainment
SPORE™ Galactic Adventures older $19.99 7,249 89% 217k $4.3M (exactly $4,347,225) EA - Maxis
Crossroads Inn Anniversary Edition older $14.99 3,579 55% 107k $1.6M (exactly $1,609,476) Klabater
Everything older $14.99 3,189 83% 96k $1.4M (exactly $1,434,093) David OReilly
Dungeons 2 older $19.99 2,292 79% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,374,512) Realmforge Studios
SPORE™ Creepy & Cute Parts Pack older $19.99 2,053 89% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,231,184) Maxis™
Dominions 4: Thrones of Ascension older $34.99 1,124 89% 34k $1.2M (exactly $1,179,863) Illwinter Game Design
Godhood older $26.99 970 70% 29k $785k (exactly $785,409) Abbey Games
Motesolo : No Girlfriend Since Birth older $22.99 1,011 86% 30k $697k (exactly $697,287) INDICAVA INTERACTIVE
Gold Gold Adventure Gold $24.99 907 70% 27k $680k (exactly $679,978) Can Can Can a Man
Fata Deum - The God Sim · EA $29.99 410 59% 12k $369k (exactly $368,877) 42 Bits Entertainment
MINOS $17.99 544 88% 16k $294k (exactly $293,597) Artificer
Strange Seed $14.99 431 86% 13k $194k (exactly $193,821) Chronicle Games Ltd
The Eastern Sacrifice $9.99 356 55% 11k $107k (exactly $106,693) 五条虾仁(5 shrimps)
吾皇万岁 $4.99 422 68% 13k $63k (exactly $63,173) AI GAME STUDIO
My Infamous Dungeon $14.99 63 76% 1.9k $28k (exactly $28,331) BoxFox Studios
Crownbound - Fantasy Kingdom Sim $11.99 73 47% 2.2k $26k (exactly $26,258) Bart Mamzer
FALL $4.99 153 88% 4.6k $23k (exactly $22,904) 谭浩翔
The Fool's Apprentice $16.99 42 52% 1.3k $21k (exactly $21,407) The Planar Danse

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.