Should I ship a PvE God Game?
PvE + God Game
Only 18 developers shipped a PvE God Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Masters of Albion, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $450k, ×725 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 44 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $179 (exactly $179) |
|---|---|
| Median | $899 (exactly $899) |
| Top 25% | $22k (exactly $22,292) |
| Top 5% | $455k (exactly $455,068) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 18 |
| Released games | 45 |
| Announced | 44 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- PvE, God Game; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Exploration
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, 2D, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 1,714 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvE with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + TypingFair
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + HeistPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + Real-TimePoor odds
- + NavalPoor odds
- + SpaceshipsPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Masters of Albion | · EA | $24.99 | 607 64% | 18k | $455k (exactly $455,068) | 22cans |
| | Darwinia | older | $11.99 | 781 78% | 23k | $281k (exactly $280,926) | Introversion Software |
| | Spectral Scream | older | $9.99 | 654 78% | 20k | $196k (exactly $196,004) | STOIC Ent. |
| | Strange Seed | $14.99 | 431 86% | 13k | $194k (exactly $193,821) | Chronicle Games Ltd | |
| | Skyworld | older | $14.99 | 229 79% | 6.9k | $103k (exactly $102,981) | Vertigo Games, Wolfdog Interactive |
| | Game of Grass | $6.99 | 275 84% | 8.3k | $58k (exactly $57,668) | Hipsterdufus | |
| | Gods Against Machines | older | $11.99 | 91 84% | 2.7k | $33k (exactly $32,733) | Silver Eye Studios |
| | ダンジョンに生息だ! | $7.99 | 112 90% | 3.4k | $27k (exactly $26,846) | ドクローネ | |
| | ELARIENNE | $7.99 | 93 61% | 2.8k | $22k (exactly $22,292) | JDL | |
| | Religion inc. | $4.99 | 128 72% | 3.8k | $19k (exactly $19,162) | GameFirst | |
| | Holy Shot | $5.99 | 53 84% | 1.6k | $9.5k (exactly $9,524) | LoneWolf Digital Arts | |
| | Kill The Skeletons | $4.99 | 8 75% | 240 | $1.2k (exactly $1,198) | Callibel Studio | |
| | me Igigu | $9.99 | 3 100% | 90 | $899 (exactly $899) | ItsAllAGame | |
| | BLEST | $6.99 | 4 0% | 120 | $839 (exactly $839) | Oedipe Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.