Do I ship it?

Games › PvE › PvE + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic PvE game?

PvE + Futuristic

Of 326 developers who shipped a Futuristic PvE game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 663 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 196 developers shipped in the last year and 663 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 663 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 326
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $413 → $628 → $748 → $598 → $449 → $599 → $270 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 326
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $358 (exactly $358)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,148)
Top 5% $622k (exactly $622,198)
Developers, 2 yr 326
Released games 835
Announced 663
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Shooter
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 544,219 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $360, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $620k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 164 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 663 games are announced against 196 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 2024 · $303M Borderlands 4 2025 · $122M Stellar Blade™ 2025 · $110M The Callisto Protocol™ 2022 · $63M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Stellar Blade™ $59.99 61,289 93% 1.8M $110M (exactly $110,301,813) SHIFT UP Corporation
The Callisto Protocol™ older $59.99 35,135 66% 1.1M $63M (exactly $63,232,460) Striking Distance Studios
PRAGMATA $59.99 32,885 96% 987k $59M (exactly $59,183,134) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
Killing Floor 3 $39.99 16,493 46% 495k $20M (exactly $19,786,652) Tripwire Interactive
The Ascent older $29.99 19,235 74% 577k $17M (exactly $17,305,730) Neon Giant
Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate - Daemonhunters older $44.99 11,426 76% 343k $15M (exactly $15,421,672) Complex Games
Call of Duty®: Black Ops 7 $69.99 4,344 37% 130k $9.1M (exactly $9,121,097) Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High… (Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Sledgehammer Games, Infinity Ward, Activision Shanghai, Demonware)
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
MechWarrior 5: Clans $29.99 5,565 74% 167k $5.0M (exactly $5,006,830) Piranha Games Inc.
Void Crew $24.99 6,573 86% 197k $4.9M (exactly $4,927,778) Hutlihut Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.