Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Investigation game?

Investigation + Futuristic

Of 63 developers who shipped a Futuristic Investigation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 126 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×707 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 126 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 126 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 63
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $3.1k → $2.4k → $2.9k → $4.0k → $1.0k → $180 (still earning) → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Investigation + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 63
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $7.9k (exactly $7,913)
Top 5% $336k (exactly $335,731)
Developers, 2 yr 63
Released games 182
Announced 126
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Investigation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Puzzle
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.98 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.98 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 5,457 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $900, 1 in 4 over $7.9k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 126 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  11. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  12. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Operation: Tango older $19.99 7,167 86% 215k $4.3M (exactly $4,298,050) Clever Plays
AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative older $39.99 3,571 86% 107k $4.3M (exactly $4,284,129) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
The Talos Principle: Reawakened $39.99 1,085 90% 33k $1.3M (exactly $1,301,674) Croteam
Lacuna – A Sci-Fi Noir Adventure older $15.99 2,158 91% 65k $1.0M (exactly $1,035,193) DigiTales Interactive
No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES $39.99 835 79% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Scene Investigators older $24.99 961 74% 29k $720k (exactly $720,462) EQ Studios
Old Skies $19.99 969 93% 29k $581k (exactly $581,109) Wadjet Eye Games
Stellar Code $24.98 448 97% 13k $336k (exactly $335,731) Fragaria
Machinika: Museum older $7.99 1,184 91% 36k $284k (exactly $283,805) Littlefield Studio
Subsurface Circular older $5.99 1,496 94% 45k $269k (exactly $268,831) Bithell Games
Machinika: Atlas $11.99 574 76% 17k $206k (exactly $206,468) Littlefield Studio
QUIET DAN $1.99 1,280 93% 38k $76k (exactly $76,416) ВСЖ, ozon671games
Mars Vice $24.99 70 97% 2.1k $52k (exactly $52,479) Rho Labyrinths GmbH
52Hertz $14.99 69 82% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,029) Moonlit Apple
Into The Darkness VR · EA $19.99 35 37% 1.1k $21k (exactly $20,990) Cosmos Games, 9 lives
Au Revoir $4.99 92 95% 2.8k $14k (exactly $13,772) Invisible Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.