Do I ship it?

GamesIncrementalIncremental + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Incremental game?

Incremental + Futuristic

Of 84 developers who shipped a Futuristic Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 130 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $990, ×2.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $17k, ×36 the market median. Revenue is up 225% on the market; 130 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 225% on the market, 130 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Incremental + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 84
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $597 → $13k → $1.3k → $2.0k → $776 → $1.0k → $1.2k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Incremental + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 84
Bottom 30% $386 (exactly $386)
Median $987 (exactly $987)
Top 25% $3.8k (exactly $3,775)
Top 5% $17k (exactly $17,127)
Developers, 2 yr 84
Released games 194
Announced 130
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 225% on the market, supply 185% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Incremental; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Idler, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Minimalist
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 4,510 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $990, 1 in 4 over $3.7k, 1 in 20 over $17k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 9 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 130 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Incremental with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds15 devs · median $11k · 12 announced
  2. + OtomeStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  3. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $6.1k · 15 announced
  4. + FarmingFair21 devs · median $5.9k · 23 announced
  5. + Dynamic NarrationFair19 devs · median $4.0k · 14 announced
  6. + MiningFair141 devs · median $3.9k · 207 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  8. + Arena ShooterFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair140 devs · median $3.1k · 136 announced
  10. + UndergroundFair27 devs · median $3.0k · 35 announced
  11. + LootFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  12. + SupernaturalFair33 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced

All 188 pairs on the Incremental page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Nodebuster older $2.99 13,852 97% 416k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,524) Goblobin
Desktop Defender $4.99 1,757 92% 53k $263k (exactly $263,023) Conradical Games
Widget Inc. $4.99 761 84% 23k $114k (exactly $113,922) Leaping Turtle
FEED THE AI $5.99 557 90% 17k $100k (exactly $100,093) Weird Kid Games
The Abandoned Planet older $14.99 197 93% 5.9k $89k (exactly $88,591) Dexter Team Games
Taimanin Yukikaze older $14.99 192 88% 5.8k $86k (exactly $86,342) Lilith
OnlyFap Simulator 4 💦 older $6.99 398 59% 12k $83k (exactly $83,461) BanzaiProject
OnlyFap Simulator 2 💦 older $6.99 367 60% 11k $77k (exactly $76,960) BanzaiProject
Fatal Countdown - immoral List of Desires older $10.99 197 76% 5.9k $65k (exactly $64,951) Secret Garden
The Birth of an Artificial Intelligence older $34.99 54 77% 1.6k $57k (exactly $56,684) 基本操作PlayClass
Deep Space Cache $0.99 884 90% 27k $26k (exactly $26,255) Monu
BastionOS $3.30 173 97% 5.2k $17k (exactly $17,127) Feral Paw
Xenosensory $2.99 161 93% 4.8k $14k (exactly $14,442) caiys
Sporbs $4.99 92 78% 2.8k $14k (exactly $13,772) Who Nose Studios
Yet Another Incremental Game (but this time about coding) · EA $7.99 39 71% 1.2k $9.3k (exactly $9,348) Raclette Games
Terraforming Titans $5.00 58 94% 1.7k $8.7k (exactly $8,700) terraforming.titans
Unbox your Workspace $8.99 28 100% 840 $7.6k (exactly $7,552) STARFALL STUDIO SRL

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.