Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Flight

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Flight RTS?

RTS + Flight

Only 14 developers shipped a Flight RTS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Starminer, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $15k, ×10 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×1092 the market median. Revenue is up 365% on the market; 18 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 365% on the market, 18 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Flight
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $96k → $6.3k → $59 → $7.7k → $220k → $15k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Flight: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $15k (exactly $15,103)
Top 25% $187k (exactly $186,550)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 54
Announced 18
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 365% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Flight; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 4,134 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $15k, 1 in 4 over $180k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Star Trek: Infinite 2023 · $2.7M Starminer 2026 · EA · $1.6M Fly Corp 2023 · $1.4M Ground of Aces 2025 · EA · $1.3M I am an Air Traffic Controller 4 2020 · $1.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Star Trek: Infinite older $29.99 3,030 41% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,726,091) Nimble Giant Entertainment
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Fly Corp older $14.99 3,112 85% 93k $1.4M (exactly $1,399,466) KishMish Games
Ground of Aces · EA $29.99 1,415 84% 42k $1.3M (exactly $1,273,076) Blindflug Studios AG
I am an Air Traffic Controller 4 older $59.99 566 79% 17k $1.0M (exactly $1,018,630) TechnoBrain
ICBM older $19.99 1,655 91% 50k $993k (exactly $992,503) SoftWarWare, K-Project
Air Defender · EA $20.19 364 78% 11k $220k (exactly $220,475) ROTOR3
Void Destroyer 2 older $9.99 652 80% 20k $195k (exactly $195,404) Iteration 11
Drone Sector · EA $16.99 366 89% 11k $187k (exactly $186,550) Icosphere
Battlestations: Midway older $6.99 860 78% 26k $180k (exactly $180,342) Eidos Interactive
Sea Walker Saga · EA $9.99 66 93% 2.0k $20k (exactly $19,780) Antelus Games
WarOS · EA $19.99 29 72% 870 $17k (exactly $17,391) The7 Studio
HEXSTORM: Tears of Arcadia $8.99 56 75% 1.7k $15k (exactly $15,103) Tearevo
Pocket and Zooom $15.99 16 75% 480 $7.7k (exactly $7,675) TechnoBrain
Fantasy Air-Sea Battles Showdown $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) WANG WENJIE
Flying Universe $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Gold Orange Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.