Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Top-Down Shooter Fighting game?

Fighting + Top-Down Shooter

Only 8 developers shipped a Top-Down Shooter Fighting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Kitchen Wars, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced, ×6.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.3k against a market of $1.5k. 12 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 12 announced, ×6.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Fighting + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $959 (exactly $959)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,348)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,294)
Top 5% $6.7k (exactly $6,736)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 35
Announced 12
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 65% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting, Top-Down Shooter
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 2,959 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $6.7k.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Midnight Fight Express older $19.99 1,981 90% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,188,006) Jacob Dzwinel
God's Trigger older $14.99 441 72% 13k $198k (exactly $198,318) One More Level
Hyper Jam older $12.99 431 93% 13k $168k (exactly $167,961) Bit Dragon
Kitchen Wars $4.99 45 80% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) Silent Owl
The Henchmen $9.99 21 76% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Alex Von Bronx
Pulsar Crash $14.99 10 100% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Little Doctor Games
Cymatically Muffed older $14.99 8 87% 240 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) Kelsam
Whiskey & Zombies: The Great Southern Zombie Escape older $9.99 6 100% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Nuttery Entertainment
Ace Pilot Europe older $4.99 11 90% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) Hubert cachat
Shop Town Dooter $8.99 5 100% 150 $1.3k (exactly $1,348) Game Sandwich
BreakBall $7.99 5 100% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) eyedromeda
Robots with Guns $7.99 4 100% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Flash of Stars
Stopping Santa $1.99 12 100% 360 $716 (exactly $716) Hephaestus Games
Mordeny $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Mordeny

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.