Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Souls-like

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fighting Souls-like?

Fighting + Souls-like

Only 8 developers shipped a Fighting Souls-like in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, BLEACH Rebirth of Souls, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $24k, ×16 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $8.6M, ×5804 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 20 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 20 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Souls-like
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $259k → $60k → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fighting + Souls-like: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,615)
Median $24k (exactly $23,834)
Top 25% $627k (exactly $627,443)
Top 5% $8.7M (exactly $8,694,351)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 56
Announced 20
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting, Souls-like
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 228,361 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $24k, 1 in 4 over $620k, 1 in 20 over $8.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 20 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  7. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  8. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  10. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  11. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  12. + Spectacle fighterPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Sifu older $39.99 21,620 92% 649k $26M (exactly $25,937,514) Sloclap
SCARLET NEXUS older $59.99 13,749 81% 412k $25M (exactly $24,744,075) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
Absolver older $29.99 11,464 74% 344k $10M (exactly $10,314,161) Sloclap
BLEACH Rebirth of Souls $59.99 4,831 68% 145k $8.7M (exactly $8,694,351) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
Thymesia older $24.99 8,262 82% 248k $6.2M (exactly $6,194,021) OverBorder Studio
Curse of the Dead Gods older $19.99 7,807 84% 234k $4.7M (exactly $4,681,858) Passtech Games
Enotria: The Last Song older $39.99 2,184 69% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,620,145) Jyamma Games
SENRAN KAGURA Burst Re:Newal older $29.99 2,433 92% 73k $2.2M (exactly $2,188,970) Tamsoft
ELDERBORN older $14.99 2,229 87% 67k $1.0M (exactly $1,002,381) Hyperstrange
Blades of Fire $39.99 523 74% 16k $627k (exactly $627,443) MercurySteam
King of Bones $7.99 316 85% 9.5k $76k (exactly $75,745) Gluten Free Games
Mortal Rite · EA $14.99 53 62% 1.6k $24k (exactly $23,834) Round Toast Studios
SIRO $9.99 8 62% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) X Soft Studio
Slappingrot $2.99 18 100% 540 $1.6k (exactly $1,615) Limeless
Souls Arena 100 Trials $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) SeedWall
Slash-Out: Fantasy Dueling $8.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Caleb Draper

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.