Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Third-Person Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fighting Third-Person Shooter?

Fighting + Third-Person Shooter

Only 6 developers shipped a Fighting Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Cyberpunk SFX, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 5 developers shipped in the last year and 11 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 11 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Third-Person Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Fighting + Third-Person Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $599 (exactly $599)
Top 5% $55k (exactly $54,845)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 38
Announced 11
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 400% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting, Third-Person Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 133,958 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $590, 1 in 20 over $54k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 11 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition older $19.99 70,499 94% 2.1M $42M (exactly $42,278,250) United Front Games, Feral Interactive (… (United Front Games, Feral Interactive (Mac))
Batman™: Arkham Origins older $19.99 45,536 90% 1.4M $27M (exactly $27,307,939) WB Games Montreal, Splash Damage
STAR WARS™ Jedi Knight - Jedi Academy™ older $9.99 11,290 96% 339k $3.4M (exactly $3,383,613) Raven Software
Gigantic: Rampage Edition older $19.99 3,795 65% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,275,862) Abstraction Games
BLACK CLOVER: QUARTET KNIGHTS older $49.99 832 75% 25k $1.2M (exactly $1,247,750) ILINX, Inc.
DAVIGO: VR vs. PC · EA older $24.99 1,200 84% 36k $900k (exactly $899,640) Davigo Studio
Prime & Load : 1776 older $7.99 313 76% 9.4k $75k (exactly $75,026) Radio Silence Entertainment
Cyberpunk SFX $9.99 183 83% 5.5k $55k (exactly $54,845) Whale Rock Games
Iron Warriors: T-72 Tank Command older $5.99 268 65% 8.0k $48k (exactly $48,160) Crazy House
Elden Gunfire 2 older $13.99 42 64% 1.3k $18k (exactly $17,627) Amonga99
DAMex : DArk Matter Exodus $4.99 4 75% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Benoit Locu
Home Invaders $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Umongus
Ranger Force $19.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) J Studios Gaming LLC
Pillow Fight $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) StudyFun
Emotional Combat: Ratio V Motus · EA $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) VX Core Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.