Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Spectacle fighter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Spectacle fighter Fighting game?

Fighting + Spectacle fighter

Of 25 developers who shipped a Spectacle fighter Fighting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.2k, ×4.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $8.8M, ×5928 the market median. Revenue is up 1270% on the market; 40 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 1270% on the market, 40 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Spectacle fighter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4k → $302k → $16k → $25k → $3.0k → $13k → $3.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fighting + Spectacle fighter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Median $7.2k (exactly $7,196)
Top 25% $76k (exactly $75,745)
Top 5% $8.9M (exactly $8,879,720)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 109
Announced 40
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1270% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting, Spectacle fighter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, 2D Fighter, Arcade
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 60,616 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $7.2k, 1 in 4 over $75k, 1 in 20 over $8.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO $49.99 50,395 86% 1.5M $76M (exactly $75,577,382) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
DYNASTY WARRIORS 8: Xtreme Legends Complete Edition older $49.99 11,886 83% 357k $18M (exactly $17,825,434) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
MELTY BLOOD: TYPE LUMINA older $49.99 9,130 88% 274k $14M (exactly $13,692,261) FRENCH-BREAD, TYPE-MOON, Lasengle Inc.,… (FRENCH-BREAD, TYPE-MOON, Lasengle Inc., TAMSOFT CORPORATION, GameLoop Inc.)
MARVEL Tōkon: Fighting Souls $59.99 4,934 48% 148k $8.9M (exactly $8,879,720) ARC SYSTEM WORKS CO., LTD
UNDER NIGHT IN-BIRTH II Sys:Celes older $49.99 1,954 87% 59k $2.9M (exactly $2,930,414) FRENCH-BREAD, Arc System Works
FATAL FURY: City of the Wolves $19.99 3,135 82% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,880,059) SNK CORPORATION
Fight Angel Special Edition older $19.99 1,776 75% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,065,067) Red Fox
Redeemer: Enhanced Edition older $11.99 2,637 87% 79k $949k (exactly $948,529) Sobaka Studio
DAVIGO: VR vs. PC · EA older $24.99 1,200 84% 36k $900k (exactly $899,640) Davigo Studio
Mitsurugi Kamui Hikae older $9.99 2,747 81% 82k $823k (exactly $823,276) Zenith Blue
Rune Coliseum · EA $18.99 886 79% 27k $505k (exactly $504,754) Rafale Software
Iron Saga VS $29.99 376 79% 11k $338k (exactly $338,287) Gameduchy
Two Strikes $14.99 256 89% 7.7k $115k (exactly $115,123) Retro Reactor
King of Bones $7.99 316 85% 9.5k $76k (exactly $75,745) Gluten Free Games
DaemonBride:ADDITIONAL GAIN $19.99 94 82% 2.8k $56k (exactly $56,372) Team Arcana, Kizawaya
Cyberpunk SFX $9.99 183 83% 5.5k $55k (exactly $54,845) Whale Rock Games
Coreupt $24.99 41 78% 1.2k $31k (exactly $30,738) Team Coreupt LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.