Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Sports

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sports Fighting game?

Fighting + Sports

Of 24 developers who shipped a Sports Fighting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×2.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $7.3M, ×4935 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 44 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 44 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Sports
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $898 → $629 → $4.2k → $3.0k → $17k → $4.5k (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fighting + Sports: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $897 (exactly $897)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,194)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $18,438)
Top 5% $7.4M (exactly $7,393,168)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 157
Announced 44
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting, Sports; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Character Customization, 3D Fighter, Action
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 62% positive over 25,962 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $7.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TEKKEN 7 older $39.99 68,063 83% 2.0M $82M (exactly $81,655,181) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
Undisputed $49.99 19,190 60% 576k $29M (exactly $28,779,243) Steel City Interactive
Captain Tsubasa: Rise of New Champions older $59.99 5,072 73% 152k $9.1M (exactly $9,128,078) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
WWE 2K25 $59.99 4,108 73% 123k $7.4M (exactly $7,393,168) Visual Concepts
WWE 2K26 $69.99 2,310 56% 69k $4.9M (exactly $4,850,307) Visual Concepts
Punch Club older $9.99 12,098 81% 363k $3.6M (exactly $3,625,771) Lazy Bear Games
Lethal League Blaze older $19.99 4,767 97% 143k $2.9M (exactly $2,858,770) Team Reptile
Fire Pro Wrestling World older $29.99 3,124 91% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,810,663) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
RUMBLE · EA older $24.99 3,158 87% 95k $2.4M (exactly $2,367,553) Buckethead Entertainment
Nidhogg older $9.99 5,717 90% 172k $1.7M (exactly $1,713,385) Messhof
Blazing Strike $39.99 38 52% 1.1k $46k (exactly $45,589) RareBreed Makes Games LLC
Shoresy: Legends of the North $19.99 57 78% 1.7k $34k (exactly $34,183) Treewood Games
Boxing Simulator $7.99 79 79% 2.4k $19k (exactly $18,936) Inogames
The Amazing Crackpots Club! $14.99 41 95% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) Astrobard Games, IguanaBee
UnderGirl: Submission Path $7.99 72 73% 2.2k $17k (exactly $17,258) KadoDev
Backyard Boxing $7.99 49 48% 1.5k $12k (exactly $11,745) Crime House Games, TheShadeGameDev
Real Boxing 2: Remastered $9.99 18 38% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Vivid Games S.A.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.