Do I ship it?

Games › Fighting › Fighting + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Fighting game?

Fighting + Simulation

Of 28 developers who shipped a Simulation Fighting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×3.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $21M, ×14341 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 51 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 51 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $3.0k → $2.5M → $51k → $5.5k → $3.6k → $222k (still earning) → $598 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fighting + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,496)
Top 25% $76k (exactly $75,745)
Top 5% $21M (exactly $21,483,403)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 151
Announced 51
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting, Simulation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry 3D Fighter, Sandbox, Action
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D, Gore
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 57,493 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $75k, 1 in 20 over $21M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Blade and Sorcery 2024 · $53M Undisputed 2024 · $29M Half Sword 2026 · EA · $21M WWE 2K25 2025 · $7.4M Bad North: Jotunn Edition 2018 · $5.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Blade and Sorcery older $29.99 59,074 96% 1.8M $53M (exactly $53,148,878) WarpFrog
Undisputed $49.99 19,190 60% 576k $29M (exactly $28,779,243) Steel City Interactive
Half Sword · EA $24.99 28,656 71% 860k $21M (exactly $21,483,403) Half Sword Games
WWE 2K25 $59.99 4,108 73% 123k $7.4M (exactly $7,393,168) Visual Concepts
Bad North: Jotunn Edition older $14.99 12,344 93% 370k $5.6M (exactly $5,551,097) Plausible Concept, Oskar Stålberg
WWE 2K26 $69.99 2,310 56% 69k $4.9M (exactly $4,850,307) Visual Concepts
Punch Club older $9.99 12,098 81% 363k $3.6M (exactly $3,625,771) Lazy Bear Games
Animal Revolt Battle Simulator older $14.99 6,571 95% 197k $3.0M (exactly $2,954,979) VDimension
Fire Pro Wrestling World older $29.99 3,124 91% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,810,663) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
UNDERDOGS older $29.99 2,788 97% 84k $2.5M (exactly $2,508,364) One Hamsa
Gladio Mori $15.99 1,147 82% 34k $550k (exactly $550,216) Plebeian Studio
Rune Coliseum · EA $18.99 886 79% 27k $505k (exactly $504,754) Rafale Software
MMA Life Simulator $16.99 435 80% 13k $222k (exactly $221,719) BNS7
King of Bones $7.99 316 85% 9.5k $76k (exactly $75,745) Gluten Free Games
IGNOBLE $6.99 331 82% 9.9k $69k (exactly $69,411) Retromagine
Vincemus - Air Combat $14.99 114 82% 3.4k $51k (exactly $51,266) Virtual Convict

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.