Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Fighting game?

Fighting + Sci-fi

Only 16 developers shipped a Sci-fi Fighting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Clone Drone in the Hyperdome, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 48 more are announced, ×6.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×4.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $620k, ×420 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 48 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 48 announced, ×6.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $9.7k → $0 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fighting + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,157)
Median $6.3k (exactly $6,300)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $30,738)
Top 5% $628k (exactly $628,486)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 108
Announced 48
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting
Price point
$10.00 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 1,759 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.2k, median $6.3k, 1 in 4 over $30k, 1 in 20 over $620k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.2k. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 48 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Ghostrunner older $29.99 46,818 91% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,122,155) One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Iro… (One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Ironworks™, All in! Games)
SCARLET NEXUS older $59.99 13,749 81% 412k $25M (exactly $24,744,075) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
Remember Me older $29.99 11,128 83% 334k $10M (exactly $10,011,862) DONTNOD Entertainment
STAR WARS™ Jedi Knight - Jedi Academy™ older $9.99 11,290 96% 339k $3.4M (exactly $3,383,613) Raven Software
SpiderHeck older $14.99 3,922 93% 118k $1.8M (exactly $1,763,723) Neverjam
HARDCORE MECHA older $19.99 2,331 83% 70k $1.4M (exactly $1,397,901) RocketPunch Games
ELDERBORN older $14.99 2,229 87% 67k $1.0M (exactly $1,002,381) Hyperstrange
Zeno Clash older $9.99 2,164 88% 65k $649k (exactly $648,551) ACE Team
Clone Drone in the Hyperdome $19.99 1,048 91% 31k $628k (exactly $628,486) Doborog Games
Iron Saga VS $29.99 376 79% 11k $338k (exactly $338,287) Gameduchy
Cyberpunk SFX $9.99 183 83% 5.5k $55k (exactly $54,845) Whale Rock Games
Coreupt $24.99 41 78% 1.2k $31k (exactly $30,738) Team Coreupt LLC
Galactic Thunderdome $9.99 35 100% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) Pansimula
Reality Rash $17.99 18 83% 540 $9.7k (exactly $9,715) Give your jumps
RAGER $19.99 16 100% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,595) Insane Prey
Heatwave $10.00 21 95% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,300) Monochromesoft
Pulsar Crash $14.99 10 100% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Little Doctor Games
Beasts of Mystery · EA $9.99 11 100% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Mutraex

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.