Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelite Fighting game?

Fighting + Roguelite

Of 22 developers who shipped a Roguelite Fighting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×2.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.7M, ×4480 the market median. Revenue is up 180% on the market; 33 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 180% on the market, 33 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449k → $1.5k → $3.3k → $2.2M (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fighting + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Top 25% $505k (exactly $504,754)
Top 5% $6.7M (exactly $6,710,862)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 53
Announced 33
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 180% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting, Roguelite; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Beat 'em up, Action Roguelike
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 30,549 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $500k, 1 in 20 over $6.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Paint the Town Red older $19.99 29,141 96% 874k $17M (exactly $17,475,858) South East Games
Absolum $24.99 9,399 91% 282k $7.0M (exactly $7,046,430) Dotemu, Guard Crush Games, Supamonks
Rotwood $29.99 7,459 74% 224k $6.7M (exactly $6,710,862) Klei Entertainment
ROUNDS older $5.99 35,738 95% 1.1M $6.4M (exactly $6,422,119) Landfall
Bad North: Jotunn Edition older $14.99 12,344 93% 370k $5.6M (exactly $5,551,097) Plausible Concept, Oskar Stålberg
Curse of the Dead Gods older $19.99 7,807 84% 234k $4.7M (exactly $4,681,858) Passtech Games
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Splintered Fate $29.99 4,143 83% 124k $3.7M (exactly $3,727,457) Super Evil Megacorp
UNDERDOGS older $29.99 2,788 97% 84k $2.5M (exactly $2,508,364) One Hamsa
Samson $24.99 2,911 54% 87k $2.2M (exactly $2,182,377) Liquid Swords
Until You Fall older $24.99 2,883 94% 86k $2.2M (exactly $2,161,385) Schell Games
Tears of Metal · EA $24.99 2,359 85% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,768,542) Paper Cult
Rune Coliseum · EA $18.99 886 79% 27k $505k (exactly $504,754) Rafale Software
Karate Survivor $4.99 2,997 85% 90k $449k (exactly $448,651) Alawar
IGNOBLE $6.99 331 82% 9.9k $69k (exactly $69,411) Retromagine
Mortal Rite · EA $14.99 53 62% 1.6k $24k (exactly $23,834) Round Toast Studios
Unbound Eternity $9.99 11 90% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Yunicorn Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.