Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Fighting game?

Fighting + Roguelike

Only 15 developers shipped a Roguelike Fighting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rotwood, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×1.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $6.7M, ×4480 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 19 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 19 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1M → $2.1k → $1.6k → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fighting + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 25% $449k (exactly $448,651)
Top 5% $6.7M (exactly $6,710,862)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 54
Announced 19
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting, Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 13,834 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $440k, 1 in 20 over $6.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sifu older $39.99 21,620 92% 649k $26M (exactly $25,937,514) Sloclap
Clone Drone in the Danger Zone older $19.99 36,084 96% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,639,575) Doborog Games
Paint the Town Red older $19.99 29,141 96% 874k $17M (exactly $17,475,858) South East Games
Rotwood $29.99 7,459 74% 224k $6.7M (exactly $6,710,862) Klei Entertainment
Bad North: Jotunn Edition older $14.99 12,344 93% 370k $5.6M (exactly $5,551,097) Plausible Concept, Oskar Stålberg
Curse of the Dead Gods older $19.99 7,807 84% 234k $4.7M (exactly $4,681,858) Passtech Games
UNDERDOGS older $29.99 2,788 97% 84k $2.5M (exactly $2,508,364) One Hamsa
Until You Fall older $24.99 2,883 94% 86k $2.2M (exactly $2,161,385) Schell Games
Tears of Metal · EA $24.99 2,359 85% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,768,542) Paper Cult
Spiritfall older $19.99 1,844 92% 55k $1.1M (exactly $1,105,847) Gentle Giant
Rune Coliseum · EA $18.99 886 79% 27k $505k (exactly $504,754) Rafale Software
Karate Survivor $4.99 2,997 85% 90k $449k (exactly $448,651) Alawar
Melon Simulator™ $4.99 74 85% 2.2k $11k (exactly $11,078) Delirious & Co.
Unbound Eternity $9.99 11 90% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Yunicorn Studio
Darkest Mine $4.99 14 92% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) Crazy Rooster Games
Superation $4.99 11 100% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) Moonsaurus Games
Slappingrot $2.99 18 100% 540 $1.6k (exactly $1,615) Limeless
Sheva $6.99 5 60% 150 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Goldtusks

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.