Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Fighting game?

Fighting + Physics

Of 44 developers who shipped a Physics Fighting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 83 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×2.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $550k, ×367 the market median. Revenue is up 75% on the market; 83 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 75% on the market, 83 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 44
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $20k → $3.0k → $9.9k → $4.8k → $7.2k → $19k → $539 (still earning) → $20k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fighting + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 44
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,936)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,374)
Top 5% $550k (exactly $550,216)
Developers, 2 yr 44
Released games 179
Announced 83
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 75% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting, Physics; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, 3D Fighter, Combat
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Funny, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 82,765 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $550k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 83 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO $49.99 50,395 86% 1.5M $76M (exactly $75,577,382) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Blade and Sorcery older $29.99 59,074 96% 1.8M $53M (exactly $53,148,878) WarpFrog
Party Animals older $19.99 56,043 81% 1.7M $34M (exactly $33,608,987) Recreate Games
Gang Beasts older $19.99 54,880 85% 1.6M $33M (exactly $32,911,536) Boneloaf, Rocket Science
Half Sword · EA $24.99 28,656 71% 860k $21M (exactly $21,483,403) Half Sword Games
Paint the Town Red older $19.99 29,141 96% 874k $17M (exactly $17,475,858) South East Games
Stick Fight: The Game older $4.99 99,952 93% 3.0M $15M (exactly $14,962,814) Landfall West
ROUNDS older $5.99 35,738 95% 1.1M $6.4M (exactly $6,422,119) Landfall
Hellish Quart · EA older $17.99 8,068 88% 242k $4.4M (exactly $4,354,300) Kubold
Overgrowth older $19.99 6,202 86% 186k $3.7M (exactly $3,719,339) Wolfire Games
Gladio Mori $15.99 1,147 82% 34k $550k (exactly $550,216) Plebeian Studio
A Gentlemen's Dispute $7.99 1,199 94% 36k $287k (exactly $287,400) Blast Furnace Games
Monster: Titan's Playground · EA $29.99 273 91% 8.2k $246k (exactly $245,618) Stellar Knights
Last Drop · EA $13.99 278 87% 8.3k $117k (exactly $116,677) Lohkare Games Oy
King of Bones $7.99 316 85% 9.5k $76k (exactly $75,745) Gluten Free Games
Pull Stay $16.99 125 97% 3.8k $64k (exactly $63,712) Nito Souji
Elements Divided $14.99 137 86% 4.1k $62k (exactly $61,609) Loco Motion Devs
Knock'Em Out $7.99 239 85% 7.2k $57k (exactly $57,288) BBear Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.