Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja Fighting game?

Fighting + Ninja

Only 15 developers shipped a Ninja Fighting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.9k, ×3.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×759 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 11 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 11 announced, ×1.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $7.0M → $91k → $2.2k (still earning) → $7.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fighting + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Median $5.9k (exactly $5,850)
Top 25% $115k (exactly $115,123)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 63
Announced 11
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, 3D Fighter, Arcade
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 64% positive over 3,079 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.2k, median $5.9k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.2k. 4 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 4 older $19.99 72,409 90% 2.2M $43M (exactly $43,423,677) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
Ghostrunner older $29.99 46,818 91% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,122,155) One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Iro… (One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Ironworks™, All in! Games)
NARUTO TO BORUTO: SHINOBI STRIKER older $19.99 42,572 84% 1.3M $26M (exactly $25,530,428) Soleil Ltd.
Ghostrunner 2 older $39.99 7,981 80% 239k $9.6M (exactly $9,574,806) One More Level
NARUTO X BORUTO Ultimate Ninja STORM CONNECTIONS older $59.99 3,881 62% 116k $7.0M (exactly $6,984,636) CyberConnect2 Co., Ltd.
NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM Revolution older $29.99 7,228 84% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,503,032) CyberConnect2 Co., Ltd.
NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 3 Full Burst HD older $19.99 10,749 89% 322k $6.4M (exactly $6,446,175) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
SENRAN KAGURA ESTIVAL VERSUS older $29.99 4,986 94% 150k $4.5M (exactly $4,485,904) Tamsoft
Overgrowth older $19.99 6,202 86% 186k $3.7M (exactly $3,719,339) Wolfire Games
NARUTO: Ultimate Ninja STORM older $19.99 5,986 76% 180k $3.6M (exactly $3,589,804) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage $19.99 1,897 71% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) RGG Studio
DEAD OR ALIVE 6 Last Round $39.99 550 31% 17k $660k (exactly $659,835) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutants Unleashed $39.99 114 50% 3.4k $137k (exactly $136,766) AHEARTFULOFGAMES
Two Strikes $14.99 256 89% 7.7k $115k (exactly $115,123) Retro Reactor
G.I. Joe: Wrath of Cobra $24.99 121 56% 3.6k $91k (exactly $90,714) indie.io
RHYTHMKILL $9.99 45 82% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) GETTAKE
DAWN ONE $8.99 26 76% 780 $7.0k (exactly $7,012) shaderbunny
Ninja Remix $5.00 39 74% 1.2k $5.9k (exactly $5,850) Hesoyam
Maki: Paw of Fury $11.99 16 75% 480 $5.8k (exactly $5,755) Bacord
Nightmarena $5.99 15 93% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) Colo Coko

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.