Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Fighting game?

Fighting + Medieval

Only 17 developers shipped a Medieval Fighting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Half Sword, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×2.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $21M, ×14341 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 35 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 35 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $24k → $268k → $3.6k (still earning) → $550k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fighting + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 25% $394k (exactly $394,003)
Top 5% $21M (exactly $21,483,403)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 82
Announced 35
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Hack and Slash, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Gore, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 34,260 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $390k, 1 in 20 over $21M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 6 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FOR HONOR™ older $29.99 108,492 69% 3.3M $98M (exactly $97,610,252) Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Toronto, Blue Byte)
MORDHAU older $29.99 91,678 80% 2.8M $82M (exactly $82,482,697) Triternion
Blade and Sorcery older $29.99 59,074 96% 1.8M $53M (exactly $53,148,878) WarpFrog
Half Sword · EA $24.99 28,656 71% 860k $21M (exactly $21,483,403) Half Sword Games
SOULCALIBUR VI older $59.99 9,768 83% 293k $18M (exactly $17,579,470) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corpor… (BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corporation)
Thymesia older $24.99 8,262 82% 248k $6.2M (exactly $6,194,021) OverBorder Studio
GORN older $19.99 7,449 94% 223k $4.5M (exactly $4,467,165) Free Lives
Hellish Quart · EA older $17.99 8,068 88% 242k $4.4M (exactly $4,354,300) Kubold
Enotria: The Last Song older $39.99 2,184 69% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,620,145) Jyamma Games
Tears of Metal · EA $24.99 2,359 85% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,768,542) Paper Cult
Gladio Mori $15.99 1,147 82% 34k $550k (exactly $550,216) Plebeian Studio
Rune Coliseum · EA $18.99 886 79% 27k $505k (exactly $504,754) Rafale Software
GORN 2 $19.99 657 86% 20k $394k (exactly $394,003) Cortopia, Free Lives
Ertugrul of Ulukayin · EA $19.99 447 84% 13k $268k (exactly $268,066) Tekden Studio
Mortal Rite · EA $14.99 53 62% 1.6k $24k (exactly $23,834) Round Toast Studios
StellaGale: The Trials Of Faith · EA $9.99 29 96% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) Extra Life Entertainment, Vifth Floor
Starkheim Tournament · EA $7.99 15 93% 450 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Project MOX
Unbound Eternity $9.99 11 90% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Yunicorn Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.