Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Martial Arts

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Martial-Arts Fighting game?

Fighting + Martial Arts

Of 37 developers who shipped a Martial-Arts Fighting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×2.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $2.9M, ×1981 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 63 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 63 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Martial Arts
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $20k → $3.0k → $3.6k → $19k → $3.3k → $2.1k → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fighting + Martial Arts: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,598)
Top 25% $91k (exactly $90,714)
Top 5% $3.0M (exactly $2,967,211)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 179
Announced 63
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Martial Arts
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, PvP
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Anime, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 60,791 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $90k, 1 in 20 over $2.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO $49.99 50,395 86% 1.5M $76M (exactly $75,577,382) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Street Fighter™ 6 older $39.99 49,952 81% 1.5M $60M (exactly $59,927,414) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
TEKKEN 8 older $39.99 46,009 56% 1.4M $55M (exactly $55,196,997) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
Mortal Kombat 1 older $49.99 34,197 74% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,285,241) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC
Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition older $19.99 70,499 94% 2.1M $42M (exactly $42,278,250) United Front Games, Feral Interactive (… (United Front Games, Feral Interactive (Mac))
Sifu older $39.99 21,620 92% 649k $26M (exactly $25,937,514) Sloclap
Absolver older $29.99 11,464 74% 344k $10M (exactly $10,314,161) Sloclap
Hellish Quart · EA older $17.99 8,068 88% 242k $4.4M (exactly $4,354,300) Kubold
Overgrowth older $19.99 6,202 86% 186k $3.7M (exactly $3,719,339) Wolfire Games
Avatar Legends: The Fighting Game $29.99 3,298 85% 99k $3.0M (exactly $2,967,211) Gameplay Group International
Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage $19.99 1,897 71% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) RGG Studio
Gladio Mori $15.99 1,147 82% 34k $550k (exactly $550,216) Plebeian Studio
Karate Survivor $4.99 2,997 85% 90k $449k (exactly $448,651) Alawar
Iron Saga VS $29.99 376 79% 11k $338k (exactly $338,287) Gameduchy
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutants Unleashed $39.99 114 50% 3.4k $137k (exactly $136,766) AHEARTFULOFGAMES
Last Drop · EA $13.99 278 87% 8.3k $117k (exactly $116,677) Lohkare Games Oy
Terrordrome - Reign of the Legends $19.99 168 72% 5.0k $101k (exactly $100,750) Huracan Studio
G.I. Joe: Wrath of Cobra $24.99 121 56% 3.6k $91k (exactly $90,714) indie.io

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.