Do I ship it?

GamesIncrementalIncremental + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Incremental game?

Incremental + Female Protagonist

Of 150 developers who shipped a Female-Led Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 147 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×3.2 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $470. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 147 games are announced against 94 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 147 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Incremental + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 150
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.9k → $11k → $716 → $1.3k → $1.8k → $1.5k → $1.1k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Incremental + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 150
Bottom 30% $466 (exactly $466)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $9.1k (exactly $9,060)
Top 5% $126k (exactly $125,790)
Developers, 2 yr 150
Released games 624
Announced 147
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Incremental; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Visual Novel, Point & Click
Price point
$2.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 11,401 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $470, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $9.0k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $470. 9 in 10 of the 149 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 147 games are announced against 94 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Incremental with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds15 devs · median $11k · 12 announced
  2. + OtomeStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  3. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $6.1k · 15 announced
  4. + FarmingFair21 devs · median $5.9k · 23 announced
  5. + Dynamic NarrationFair19 devs · median $4.0k · 14 announced
  6. + MiningFair141 devs · median $3.9k · 207 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  8. + Arena ShooterFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair140 devs · median $3.1k · 136 announced
  10. + UndergroundFair27 devs · median $3.0k · 35 announced
  11. + LootFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  12. + SupernaturalFair33 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced

All 188 pairs on the Incremental page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Touhou Mystia's Izakaya older $5.99 29,517 98% 886k $5.3M (exactly $5,304,205) 二色幽紫蝶, Re零同人社
Peeping Dorm Manager older $10.99 6,206 92% 186k $2.0M (exactly $2,046,118) HornyDoge
Behind the Frame: The Finest Scenery older $12.99 4,966 94% 149k $1.9M (exactly $1,935,250) Silver Lining Studio
Love Curse: Find Your Soulmate $14.00 3,275 95% 98k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,500) Xso
HunieCam Studio older $6.99 5,192 88% 156k $1.1M (exactly $1,088,762) HuniePot
Cauldron $14.99 1,678 92% 50k $755k (exactly $754,597) SleepyDad Games
Lost2 older $15.99 1,382 81% 41k $663k (exactly $662,945) DSGame
1 to 1 humanoid edible toys older $7.99 2,420 92% 73k $580k (exactly $580,074) 汉谟拉比炒面, 我的屁是香哒
恋爱吗?我家猫会后空翻 $9.99 1,508 96% 45k $452k (exactly $451,948) 光循花火工作室
Handyman Legend older $6.99 2,066 89% 62k $433k (exactly $433,240) SupaShinKen Studio
Fallen Elf Freya $9.99 683 85% 20k $205k (exactly $204,695) Honey Rider
万词破 - 单词女友 $14.99 448 89% 13k $201k (exactly $201,466) 万词破学游组
Scarlet Skips $4.99 1,310 78% 39k $196k (exactly $196,107) Yerk Games
Only You $6.99 719 94% 22k $151k (exactly $150,774) 忘雪社
Marisa!ReturnTheBook! $5.99 700 90% 21k $126k (exactly $125,790) NARROW, TSUKUYOMIC
Breeding City Welcomes you $12.99 310 68% 9.3k $121k (exactly $120,807) meteo.H
Alice's Gaze $3.99 770 91% 23k $92k (exactly $92,169) Starmoon Cat

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.