Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Fighting game?

Fighting + Female Protagonist

Only 17 developers shipped a Female-Led Fighting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, THE KING OF FIGHTERS XV, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×2.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $7.5M, ×5044 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 26 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 26 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $54k → $9.2k → $7.2k → $660k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fighting + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,999)
Top 25% $9.2k (exactly $9,165)
Top 5% $7.6M (exactly $7,556,580)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 112
Announced 26
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Local Multiplayer
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Funny, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 13,124 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $9.1k, 1 in 20 over $7.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Street Fighter™ 6 older $39.99 49,952 81% 1.5M $60M (exactly $59,927,414) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Mortal Kombat X older $19.99 39,392 88% 1.2M $24M (exactly $23,623,382) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC
SOULCALIBUR VI older $59.99 9,768 83% 293k $18M (exactly $17,579,470) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corpor… (BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corporation)
Skullgirls 2nd Encore older $24.99 23,071 88% 692k $17M (exactly $17,296,329) Hidden Variable Studios
Street Fighter V older $19.99 27,820 72% 835k $17M (exactly $16,683,654) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Remember Me older $29.99 11,128 83% 334k $10M (exactly $10,011,862) DONTNOD Entertainment
THE KING OF FIGHTERS XV $29.99 8,399 83% 252k $7.6M (exactly $7,556,580) SNK CORPORATION
Fate/EXTELLA older $39.99 4,091 91% 123k $4.9M (exactly $4,907,973) Marvelous Inc.
Granblue Fantasy: Versus older $19.99 7,631 83% 229k $4.6M (exactly $4,576,311) Cygames, Inc., Arc System Works
SENRAN KAGURA ESTIVAL VERSUS older $29.99 4,986 94% 150k $4.5M (exactly $4,485,904) Tamsoft
FATAL FURY: City of the Wolves $19.99 3,135 82% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,880,059) SNK CORPORATION
DEAD OR ALIVE 6 Last Round $39.99 550 31% 17k $660k (exactly $659,835) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Scott Pilgrim EX $28.99 471 85% 14k $410k (exactly $409,629) Tribute Games Inc.
Ertugrul of Ulukayin · EA $19.99 447 84% 13k $268k (exactly $268,066) Tekden Studio
Zombie Flick | 僵尸快打 $5.99 51 45% 1.5k $9.2k (exactly $9,165) Yiming
StellaGale: The Trials Of Faith · EA $9.99 29 96% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) Extra Life Entertainment, Vifth Floor
Virtue's Heaven $19.99 12 100% 360 $7.2k (exactly $7,196) MOKKOGRAD
DAWN ONE $8.99 26 76% 780 $7.0k (exactly $7,012) shaderbunny
Pure Instinct Katana $24.99 4 75% 120 $3.0k (exactly $2,999) Pure Instinct Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.