Do I ship it?

GamesRTSRTS + Farming Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Farming Sim RTS?

RTS + Farming Sim

Only 15 developers shipped a Farming Sim RTS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Wandering Village, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.5k, ×4.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.9M, ×4645 the market median. Revenue is up 330% on the market; 14 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 330% on the market, 14 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Farming Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.5k → $36k → $379k
Outcomes for RTS + Farming Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,197)
Median $6.5k (exactly $6,501)
Top 25% $183k (exactly $182,908)
Top 5% $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 29
Announced 14
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 330% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Farming Sim; all of the top 25% also carry City Builder, Management, Sandbox
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 9,048 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $6.5k, 1 in 4 over $180k, 1 in 20 over $6.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Industry Giant 4.0 $24.99 506 33% 15k $379k (exactly $379,348) Don VS Dodo
Of Life and Land $24.99 288 82% 8.6k $216k (exactly $215,914) Kerzoven
Summa Expeditionis $19.99 305 68% 9.2k $183k (exactly $182,908) Lobico Games
My Drug Cartel · EA $24.99 48 50% 1.4k $36k (exactly $35,986) Gigicom
Pocket Harvest older $8.99 106 86% 3.2k $29k (exactly $28,588) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Randoville · EA older $14.99 63 63% 1.9k $28k (exactly $28,331) AVE Team
Shiny Ski Resort older $8.99 102 92% 3.1k $28k (exactly $27,509) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Node Farm $11.99 75 81% 2.3k $27k (exactly $26,978) ByerN
Flow Of War $12.99 40 85% 1.2k $16k (exactly $15,588) Rongcon Games
Harvest Village $6.99 31 80% 930 $6.5k (exactly $6,501) Musa GUNGOR
Happy Piggy $9.99 13 100% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Gamesforgames
VeilWood $9.99 8 87% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) Chaos Cabin

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.