Do I ship it?

GamesReal-Time with PauseReal-Time with Pause + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Real-Time with Pause game?

Real-Time with Pause + Fantasy

Only 13 developers shipped a Fantasy Real-Time with Pause game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, GreedFall: The Dying World, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $26k, ×18 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $15k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×1028 the market median. Revenue is up 595% on the market; 25 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 17.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 595% on the market, 25 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time with Pause + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Real-Time with Pause + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $15k (exactly $14,985)
Median $26k (exactly $26,258)
Top 25% $219k (exactly $219,118)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,540,192)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 64
Announced 25
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 595% on the market, supply 235% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time with Pause
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Real-Time with Pause; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, CRPG
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 3,927 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $15k, median $26k, 1 in 4 over $210k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $15k. 25 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with Pause with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CombatStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + ActionFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  4. + AdventurePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced
  5. + City BuilderPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  7. + Choices MatterPoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $124k · 19 announced
  9. + MilitaryPoor odds11 devs · median $124k · 33 announced
  10. + MedievalPoor odds10 devs · median $87k · 22 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  12. + SurvivalPoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 27 announced

All 41 pairs on the Real-Time with Pause page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition older $29.99 28,721 85% 862k $26M (exactly $25,840,284) BioWare
Pathfinder: Kingmaker — Enhanced Plus Edition older $19.99 28,146 77% 844k $17M (exactly $16,879,156) Owlcat Games
Pillars of Eternity older $29.99 16,990 87% 510k $15M (exactly $15,285,903) Obsidian Entertainment
FINAL FANTASY XII THE ZODIAC AGE older $49.99 8,679 88% 260k $13M (exactly $13,015,896) Square Enix
Baldur's Gate: Enhanced Edition older $19.99 15,395 92% 462k $9.2M (exactly $9,232,382) Beamdog
Tyranny older $29.99 9,877 87% 296k $8.9M (exactly $8,886,337) Obsidian Entertainment
Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire older $19.99 14,659 87% 440k $8.8M (exactly $8,791,002) Obsidian Entertainment
STAR WARS™ Knights of the Old Republic™ older $9.99 28,518 90% 856k $8.5M (exactly $8,546,845) BioWare, Aspyr (Mac)
Baldur's Gate II: Enhanced Edition older $19.99 9,478 92% 284k $5.7M (exactly $5,683,957) Beamdog
Neverwinter Nights: Enhanced Edition older $19.99 7,859 90% 236k $4.7M (exactly $4,713,042) Beamdog
GreedFall: The Dying World $49.99 1,027 61% 31k $1.5M (exactly $1,540,192) Spiders
Airborne Empire $29.99 852 86% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) The Wandering Band LLC
Banquet for Fools $19.99 936 89% 28k $561k (exactly $561,319) Hannah and Joseph Games
Escape The Mad Empire · EA $17.99 406 88% 12k $219k (exactly $219,118) XperimentalZ Games
Here Comes The Swarm · EA $19.99 358 84% 11k $215k (exactly $214,693) CableHook Games
Elengard: Ascension · EA $24.99 116 77% 3.5k $87k (exactly $86,965) Stèphano M. M. G.
Crownbound - Fantasy Kingdom Sim $11.99 73 47% 2.2k $26k (exactly $26,258) Bart Mamzer
Dread Admiral $13.99 59 89% 1.8k $25k (exactly $24,762) Tescrin Games
Geo Mythica $14.99 50 100% 1.5k $22k (exactly $22,485) Guin Entertainment, LLC
Skills & Raids $9.99 50 66% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,985) Eddie H.Hinestroza

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.